⛱️ Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks & Odds 2026: Scheffler, McIlroy On Top, Again
Bay Hill Club & Lodge hosts Russell Henley for his title defense, where he faces a premier 72-man Signature Event field. I'm making my best 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, with the tournament odds listing Scottie Scheffler (+350) and Rory McIlroy (+1000) as the betting favorites. The pair has combined for three wins in this event. Scheffler won two of the past four editions at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando.
McIlroy looks to replicate his 2018 success. With every member of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) top-10 participating, this 72-man field carries immense strength. Bettors should note this event includes a 36-hole cut, with the top 50 and ties, as well as anyone within 10 strokes of the lead, advancing to the weekend.
π Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings & best bets
Here are our 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings, with the best odds from our best golf betting sites and a bet to make for all 10 golfers. Odds as of Tuesday and subject to change.
| π Ranking | ποΈ Golfer | π’ Best odds to win | π° Bet to make |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | +100 via FanDuel | Top-10 finish (+106) |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | +350 via BetMGM | Top American (+225) |
| 3 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +2500 via FanDuel | Top-10 finish (+220) |
| 4 | Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 via FanDuel | Top British & Irish (+350) |
| 5 | Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 via FanDuel | Top-5 finish (+650) |
| 6 | Si Woo Kim | +3300 via BetMGM | Top-20 finish (+105) |
| 7 | Xander Schauffele | +2500 via FanDuel | Top American (+1400) |
| 8 | Jake Knapp | +4000 via bet365 | Top-20 finish (+150) |
| 9 | Collin Morikawa | +2700 via DraftKings | Top-10 finish (+245) |
| 10 | Sam Burns | +5500 via BetMGM | Top-20 finish (+170) |
β° Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader predictions
Here are my top Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader predictions for Thursday at Bay Hill:
| Pick | Best odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee | +3800 via DraftKings | 0.25 units -> 9.5 |
| Sam Burns | +4400 via DraftKings | 0.25 -> 11 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +5000 via bet365 | 0.25 -> 12.5 |
Scottie Scheffler π Rory McIlroy
My pick: Rory McIlroy (+1000)
As is usually the case in Signature Event fields, I would bet Rory McIlroy at +1000 odds to win over Scottie Scheffler and his +340 outright odds.
Both have won this event, with Scheffler doing so more recently. Yet, McIlroy has 24 more rounds of competitive experience at Bay Hill. He finished T-15 or better in eight of his past nine trips to Orlando.
McIlroy ranks better (first vs. fifth) in this week's key stat of bogey avoidance, and he's better on approach from this week's key distance of 175-200 yards.
π― Arnold Palmer Invitational long-shot pick
Sam Burns (+5500 via bet365)
Jake Knapp is the popular long-shot pick this week with +4000 outright betting odds, but I'm going to look to earn an extra $150 in profit on a winning $10 bet by backing Sam Burns via the +5000 odds from BetMGM.
Burns is far more experienced at Bay Hill, having played this event each of the past eight years. He has a top finish of T-9 in 2022. The approach game that derailed his recent bids in this tournament has been much improved early in 2026, and he remains one of the PGA Tour's premier putters on Bermuda greens. He's 20th in par-5 scoring and routinely ranks in the top 50 on the PGA Tour in that metric.
π Arnold Palmer Invitational outright odds: Favorites
Here are the betting favorites to win this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, with odds via DraftKings. Top finish odds include ties. For the full-field odds from our best golf betting sites, scroll further down.
| Player | π To Win | Top 5οΈβ£ | Top π |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +340 | -134 | -280 |
| Rory McIlroy | +980 | +194 | -106 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 | +315 | +144 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2050 | +355 | +168 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2200 | +375 | +175 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2700 | +440 | +200 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2900 | +450 | +200 |
| Cameron Young | +3100 | +500 | +230 |
| Russell Henley | +3200 | +495 | +220 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 | +530 | +235 |
π° Arnold Palmer Invitational pick to win: My first click
Stay tuned throughout the week for the rest of our golf picks.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3500 via DraftKings)
Hideki Matsuyama enters the week at No. 12 in the OWGR. He's fallen to ninth on the outright oddsboard as of Wednesday morning, with his odds lengthening to +3500 from an opening number of +3000 on Monday morning. His new odds represent an implied win probability of 2.78% in the 72-man Signature Event field.
Matsuyama finished just T-28 in The Genesis for his worst result through five events this year. He previously hadn't finished outside the top this season, and he has a strong history at Bay Hill with four finishes of T-22 or better in his past five trips to Orlando. He's also a former Signature Event winner and major champion, so I'm not concerned about his ability to win in strong fields.
His approach game is sharp and he ranks second on Tour this season in bogey avoidance, with only 30 through 360 holes played.
A winning $10 bet on Matsuyama to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational would return a profit of $350. I chase longer odds in the Puerto Rico Open odds this week.
π‘ How I'm betting the Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational just might be my favorite Signature Event on the PGA Tour. I love the course setup and the multiple ways by which to attack each hole, as well as the challenges of the firm and fast putting surfaces.
As such, I tend to raise my betting budget this week while keeping bankroll management front of mind. It's another Signature Event, so I don't want to overexpose myself to any one golfer, and will be looking for ways to get some action on Scheffler as a partial hedge.
The past 10 winning scores have ranged from -4 to -18. Only three of the past eight champions of this event had odds longer than +2500, so I'll be sticking mostly to the favorites in the outright market and will look to back long shots in the form of top 10 or top 20 bets.
I'll also be monitoring the Players Championship odds throughout the week, and looking to get ahead with any outright bets as this week's leaderboard takes shape.
Course info
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge has lent itself to a variety of golfer profiles in recent years. From Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau's raw power to Russell Henley's precision ball striking last year. The winning profile has shifted toward accuracy off the tee, but approach shots remain the key to key success, especially from the key range of 175-200 yards.
The greens are firm and among the fastest on the PGA Tour's regular rotation. Water is abundant, making bogey avoidance among my key stats for the week.
| Bay Hill Club & Lodge | |
|---|---|
| Par | 72 |
| Yardage | 7,466 |
| Greens | Bermuda |
| Architect | Dick Wilson |
| Comparable courses | Kiawah Island, Royal St. George's, Nicklaus Tournament Course, TPC Scottsdale |
Key stats
Here are the key stats for this week, along with the 2026 PGA Tour leader:
| Metric | Importance at Bay Hill | 2026 Leader | Stat Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SG: Approach | Crucial for hitting small, firm targets. | Rory McIlroy | +1.464 |
| Proximity 150-175 yards | The most common approach distance at API. | Si Woo Kim | 21-feet-1 |
| Par 5 scoring | Bay Hill has 4 critical Par 5s. | Scottie Scheffler | 4.44 (Avg) |
| SG: Off-the-Tee | Length and accuracy to avoid thick rough. | Michael Brennan* | +0.931 |
| Scrambling % | Vital for "saving par" when missing greens. | Hideki Matsuyama | 78.76% |
| SG: Putting | Specifically on lightning-fast Bermuda grass. | Jacob Bridgeman | +1.276 |
* Not in field
Statistical analysis for betting picks
- The "Ball Striking" play: Matt Fitzpatrick leads the Tour in 2026 Ball Striking (a combination of Total Driving and GIR ranks). Given his past success at Bay Hill (2019 Runner-up), he is the primary "value" target
- The "Approach" specialist: While Rory McIlroy leads in SG: Approach, Si Woo Kim is the leader in pure Proximity to the Hole. At +3300, Kim offers a higher ROI for Top 10 markets than the favorites
- The "Long shot" narrative: Jake Knapp sits at 2nd in 2026 Scoring Average (68.97). His ability to go low consistently makes him a dangerous "Swing 5" qualifier who could disrupt the leaderboard
π Arnold Palmer Invitational betting insights
Here is how the betting action is coming in on the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at BetMGM as of Wednesday morning:
Tournament winner
Most tickets
- Scottie Scheffler 14.9%
- Rory McIlroy 8.4%
- Tommy Fleetwood 5.7%
Most handle
- Scottie Scheffler 46.3%
- Rory McIlroy 9.0%
- Tommy Fleetwood 5.3%
Biggest liabilities
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Tommy Fleetwood
Tournament winner without Scottie Scheffler
Most tickets
- Rory McIlroy 12.2%
- Collin Morikawa 8.3%
- Tommy Fleetwood 7.0%
Most handle
- Rory McIlroy 24.9%
- Russell Henley 12.7%
- Matt Fitzpatrick 11.2%
Biggest liabilities
- Rory McIlroy
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Russell Henley
Arnold Palmer Invitational public betting trends: Most bet players
| Player | Top 5 odds | Top 10 odds | Top 20 odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -150 | β | β |
| Rory McIlroy | +175 | -118 | β |
| Collin Morikawa | +350 | +170 | -145 |
| Jake Knapp | +550 | +250 | +105 |
| Si Woo Kim | +500 | β | -118 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | β | +138 | β |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | β | +170 | β |
| Nicolai HΓΈjgaard | β | β | +130 |
| Shane Lowry | β | β | +115 |
πΊ How to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational coverage will be carried by Golf Channel and NBC, as well as Peacock and PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ (streaming). Here's the full broadcast coverage schedule for this week's tournament:
| Day | Time | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday-Friday | 2-6 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday-Sunday | 12:30-2:30 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday-Sunday | 2:30-6 p.m. ET | NBC, Peacock |
PGA Tour Live coverage on ESPN+ will be from 7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday and Friday, and from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.
β Featured groups
All four rounds of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be played in twosomes. Here are the featured groups for Thursday and Friday's broadcasts, with tee times beginning at 7:40 a.m. ET on Thursday.
| Featured group | Thursday tee time | Friday tee time |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose | 9:55 a.m. ET | |
| Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry | 10:05 a.m. ET | |
| Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley | 10:20 a.m. ET | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland | 1:30 p.m. ET | 10:20 a.m. ET |
| Jordan Spieth, Sam Stevens | 8:40 a.m. ET | |
| Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama | 10:05 a.m. ET |
Nos. 6 (par 5), 14 (par 3), and 17 (par 3) will get featured hole coverage as well.
β±οΈ Arnold Palmer Invitational weather
Here is the expected weather forecast for Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando from Accuweather:
| π¦οΈ Thursday | π¦οΈ Friday | π€οΈ Saturday | π€οΈ Sunday | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| π‘οΈ Temp. | 84 | 85 | 86 | 86 |
| π§ Precipitation | 57% | 55% | 25% | 14$ |
| π¨ Wind | 12 mph | 13 mph | 10 mph | 9 mph |
π Full-field Arnold Palmer Invitational odds
Live Arnold Palmer Invitational odds update in real time.
β³ Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament info
- Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Orlando)
- When: Thursday, March 5 - Sunday, March 8
- Field: 72
- Cut: 36 holes (top 50 and ties, and anyone within 10 strokes of the lead)
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+350 via FanDuel)
- Defending champion: Russell Henley
- Purse: $20 million ($4 million to first)
- FedEx Cup points: 700
π Arnold Palmer Invitational betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Russell Henley | -11 | +4000 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -15 | +650 |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama | -9 | +20000 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -5 | +2000 |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau | -11 | +1200 |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | +5000 |
| 2019 | Francesco Molinari | -12 | +2500 |
| 2018 | Rory McIlroy | -18 | +1600 |
| 2017 | Marc Leishman | -11 | +8000 |
| 2016 | Jason Day | -17 | +1200 |
β Arnold Palmer Invitational FAQs
Who is favored to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
Scottie Scheffler is the outright betting favorite for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational with odds of +350 via FanDuel, representing an implied win probability of 22.22% in the 72-man field. He's seeking a third career win in this event.
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year?
Russell Henley won last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational and the $4 million first-place prize.
Where is the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is played annually at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando.
When is the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be played from Thursday, March 5 through Sunday, March 8.
Is there a cut in the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
Yes, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of three Signature Events that feature a 36-hole cut (The Genesis Invitational and the Memorial Tournament). The top 50 (and ties) as well as anyone within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes will advance to play the weekend.
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