⛱️ Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Target A.M. Wave
My Arnold Palmer first-round leader predictions target Min Woo Lee, Sam Burns, and Akshay Bhatia, each with a 0.25-unit wager for Thursday's opening round at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando. The first tee time will be at 7:40 a.m. ET, and I'm trying to stick to the morning wave with my picks. The wind will worsen in the afternoon, and there's a chance of showers later in the day.
I've covered this week's PGA Tour event with a breakdown of the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and my power rankings.
💰 Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader predictions
Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
| Pick | Best odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee | +3800 via DraftKings | 0.25 units -> 9.5 |
| Sam Burns | +4400 via DraftKings | 0.25 -> 11 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +5000 via bet365 | 0.25 -> 12.5 |
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⛳ Who'll lead the Arnold Palmer Invitational after Round 1?
Min Woo Lee (+3800)
Tee time: 8:50 a.m. ET | Partner: Michael Thorbjornsen
Lee will be in the eighth group out on Thursday morning, and I'll be starting my tournament viewing with him and playing partner Michael Thorbjornsen. These are two of the longer hitters in any field, and I'm excited to watch them go toe-to-toe off the tee.
Lee is the longer hitter of the two, and he's also stroking a red-hot putter with 0.87 strokes gained: putting across his last 12 rounds. Woozy is tied for seventh in Round 1 scoring average through four events, and I'm particularly fond of his 4.29 scoring average on par 5s.
Sam Burns (+4400)
Tee time: 12:15 p.m. ET | Partner: Sungjae Im
Though I prefer the morning wave in Round 1 tee times, the advantage isn't significant enough to fade Burns. I view him as an excellent course fit for Bay Hill, despite his career-best tournament finish being a T-9 in 2022.
Burns is 20th in par-5 scoring through 44 such holes. He's long off the tee and with his irons. He's also one of the PGA Tour's best putters on Bermuda greens. I bet him to win this event at +5500 odds, and I'm doubling down with a first-round leader prediction.
Akshay Bhatia (+5000)
Tee time: 9:45 a.m. ET | Partner: Brian Harman
Bhatia has finished T-3, T-6, and T-16 in his last three events, with two of those being Signature Events. Though he has a first-round scoring average of just 69.00, I love his current form heading into his second career appearance in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He'll be out Thursday morning ahead of the worst of the wind and possible rain. This will allow him to showcase his precision iron play, as he averages 1.17 strokes gained: approach per round. That's accompanied by 0.90 SG: putting. He's well equipped to attack the fast greens of Bay Hill.
⏰️ When are first-round leader bets paid out?
The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weatherto be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
Thursday's weather at Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Weather from Accuweather:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🌡️ Temp. | 80 degrees in the morning, high of 84 in the afternoon |
| 💨 Wind | 9 mph with gusts up to 20 mph |
| 🌧️ Precipitation | Sunny with 45% cloud cover; 57% precipitation |
| ☀️ Humidity | 54% humidity |
📊 Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader odds
Here are the Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.
📺 How to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Golf Channel and NBC will carry coverage of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as will Peacock and PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ (streaming). Here's the full broadcast coverage schedule for this week's tournament:
| Day | Time | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday-Friday | 2-6 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday-Sunday | 12:30-2:30 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday-Sunday | 2:30-6 p.m. ET | NBC, Peacock |
PGA Tour Live coverage on ESPN+ will be from 7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday and Friday, and from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.
⭐ Featured groups
All four rounds of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be played in twosomes. Here are the featured groups for Thursday and Friday's broadcasts, with tee times beginning at 7:40 a.m. ET on Thursday.
| Featured group | Thursday tee time | Friday tee time |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose | 9:55 a.m. ET | |
| Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry | 10:05 a.m. ET | |
| Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley | 10:20 a.m. ET | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland | 1:30 p.m. ET | 10:20 a.m. ET |
| Jordan Spieth, Sam Stevens | 8:40 a.m. ET | |
| Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama | 10:05 a.m. ET |
Nos. 6 (par 5), 14 (par 3), and 17 (par 3) will get featured hole coverage as well.
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