Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Predictions: 2025 New Orleans Bowl Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Despite Southern Miss's massive turnaround this season, our Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss predictions are taking Tyson Helton to win his fifth bowl game, and second New Orleans Bowl, as head coach of the Hilltoppers.
Western Kentucky is a 1.5-point betting favorite for today's 5:30 p.m. ET kickoff (ESPN) from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, in the third bowl game featured in our college football predictions this week.
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🏈 Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss prediction: 2025 New Orleans Bowl
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky -1.5 | -106 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Matthew Henry anytime TD | +105 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Western Kentucky -1.5 (-106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In Charles Huff's first season as head coach, he led the Golden Eagles to a 7-5 record. But now he's off to Memphis, and Southern Miss has to play a Western Kentucky team that's 9-3 ATS.
Southern Miss is riding a three-game losing streak and has one of the worst defenses of any eligible team (ranked No. 103 by SP+). With the emergence of Rodney Tisdale Jr. at QB for the Hilltoppers, WKU can win a high-scoring shootout in the Big Easy.
WKU is averaging 34.7 PPG in Tisdale's four starts against G5 teams.
Score prediction: Western Kentucky 34, Southern Miss 30
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🙌 Best Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss TD pick: New Orleans Bowl
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Matthew Henry, WR, Western Kentucky: Anytime TD (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a hot start to the season, Matthew Henry's production began to dip due to inconsistent QB play. But the emergence of Tisdale behind center has unlocked the former FCS All-Americans' big-play ability.
Despite starting just five games, Tisdale won Conference USA Freshman of the Year while elevating WKU's offense to No. 50 in the country in PPG (29.8).
His connection with Henry has been a big reason why, with the receiver putting up 22 receptions for 311 yards and three TDs on 32 targets in Tisdale's four starts against G5 teams.
With Southern Miss's defensive struggles and star cornerback Josh Moten's availability being unclear, the Tisdale to Henry connection should be on full display in New Orleans.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for New Orleans Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Moten, Southern Miss | CB | 10 INTs last two seasons | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jaylen Lewis, Western Kentucky | DB | 68 tackles, 2 INTs | Round 6-UDFA |
| J'Mond Tapp, Southern Miss | EDGE | 11.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks | Round 6-UDFA |
| Braylon Braxton, Southern Miss | QB | 2,796 passing yards, 23 TDs | Round 7-UDFA |
| Matthew Henry, Western Kentucky | WR | 762 receiving yards, 6 TDs | Round 7-UDFA |
📊 Live Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss odds: New Orleans Bowl
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Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss opening odds
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky -185 | Southern Miss +155
- Spread: Western Kentucky -4 (-110) | Southern Miss +4 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
📈 Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss betting trends
| Western Kentucky | Statistic | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L record | 7-5 |
| 9-3 | ATS record | 5-6-1 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 6-6 |
| 5.8 | Yards per play | 5.8 |
| 5.7 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| -0.4 | Turnover margin | +1.0 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| L, 37-34 vs. Jacksonville State | Previous result | L, 28-18 vs. Troy |
📺 How to watch Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss: New Orleans Bowl
- Date: Tuesday, Dec. 23
- Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- TV: ESPN
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