West Virginia vs. BYU Prediction Tonight: College Football Week 6 Odds & Expert Picks

In a game between Big 12 foes tonight, my West Virginia vs. BYU prediction is breaking down both sides of the matchup as part of our college football predictions for Week 6.

While Rich Rodriguez managed to score a win in the Backyard Brawl, his return to Morgantown has been less than stellar, with the Cougars being an 18.5-point betting favorite against the Mountaineers for Friday's 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) kick from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.

With two freshman set to start at QB, my college football picks lean strongly in one direction.

📊 West Virginia vs. BYU odds

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🔮 West Virginia vs. BYU expert picks

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⛏️ Why West Virginia can cover

With Nicco Marchiol set to redshirt and Jaylen Henderson out injured, Rich Rod is expected to start freshman Khalil Wilkins at QB. If West Virginia is going to cover - the best price on the Mountaineers is +19.5 (-115 via BetMGM)- it will come down to Wilkins giving this offense a spark. 

While Wilkins has thrown only six passes this season, he's at least been credited with one big-time throw, something Henderson didn't accomplish in 24 pass attempts. He's also a better fit for Rich Rod's zone-read offense than Marchiol and has racked up 106 rushing yards on 16 carries this season - he has the third-most forced missed tackles on the team (5) and the second-most 10-yard runs (5).

Since losing Jahiem White for the season, the Mountaineers have had so little going for them on offense that Rodriguez being forced to play a young QB like Watkins could help this team. He's clearly a more explosive runner than Marchiol and has more upside as a passer than Henderson, so maybe he surprises this BYU defense and does some real damage.

BYU has been more susceptible to the run this season - No. 24 in EPA per rush on defense vs. No. 13 in EPA per pass - and without much tape on Watkins, Rodriguez could catch the Cougars sleeping like he did with Pittsburgh. At minimum, his young QB's running ability allows him to fully lean into his offense.

Meanwhile, WVU's defense could frazzle BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier enough to force him into a mistake or two. The Mountaineers have talent in their secondary, led by Fred Perry and Jason Chambers, and their defense ranks No. 38 in EPA per rush, so it could find success slowing BYU's run-first attack to some extent.

🔵 Why BYU can cover

BYU can cover because it already has three times in four games, including twice as double-digit favorites. This West Virginia team may have beaten Pitt, but it's not that much better than the Stanford squad Kalani Sitake's team beat 27-3 in Week 2. The Cougars play a tough brand of football, and though they're relying on a freshman in Bachmeier, they're one of the best teams in the Big 12.

Bachmeier is like a battering ram and even looks like a fullback while sporting No. 47, and his ability as a runner has really opened up BYU's ground attack. The Cougars are No. 18 in the country in EPA per rush on offense, thanks to Bachmeier and LJ Martin, who might be the most underrated running back in the country.

Martin is second in the Big 12 in rushing yards after contact (288) and top 10 in yards per carry after contact (5.24), missed tackles forced (15), and 10-plus-yard runs (13). And he's not the only weapon on this offense, with wide receiver Chase Roberts being a downfield threat and tight end Carsen Ryan being Bachmeier's safety blanket.

Defensively, BYU is even better. The Cougars have the highest-ranked defense in the Big 12 by SP+ (No. 13) and are allowing the seventh-fewest yards per game in the country (226.8). Jay Hill's defense is littered with potential NFL talent, including linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker.

With such a physical run game to lean on and a defense that's yet to give up more than 21 points in a game, BYU can beat down this struggling West Virginia team and pull away in the second half to cover this spread. 

🏈 West Virginia vs. BYU prediction & best bet

Between the Marchiol redshirt and White and Henderson's injuries, West Virginia's offense just doesn't have the experience to compete with a BYU team that could potentially push to win double-digit games this season. While Bachmeier being a true freshman could be seen as a concern, it's not against a team like the Mountaineers.

BYU is built to bludgeon defenses with Bachmeier and Martin, while sprinkling in a few passes to Roberts and Ryan. The Cougars' defense can do the rest; it's one of the best in the country after all. And even with Wilkins' explosiveness as a runner, I don't expect him to do enough damage against BYU's front seven for the Mountaineers to make this a game.

With WVU failing to cover as a double-digit underdog in two straight games - a 48-14 loss to Utah and a 41-10 loss to Kansas - I don't expect a different outcome on Friday night in Provo, especially in front of a rambunctious BYU home crowd.  

That's why I'm taking BYU to cover the 18.5-point spread, with a $10 bet at DraftKings paying an $8.93 profit.

✅ Score prediction: BYU 33, West Virginia 13

💰 West Virginia vs. BYU picks

College football expert picks for Week 6; odds subject to change.

📺 How to watch West Virginia vs. BYU: Week 6

• Date: Friday, Oct. 3
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah)
• TV: ESPN