Virginia vs. Missouri Predictions & Odds | 2025 Gator Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
Despite losing their starting QB in the transfer portal, my Virginia vs. Missouri predictions are backing the Tigers to win decisively in the Gator Bowl thanks to their loaded offensive and defensive lines.
Missouri is a 4-point betting favorite for tonight's 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) Gator Bowl from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., in the 15th bowl game featured in our college football predictions this week.
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🏈 Virginia vs. Missouri predictions: 2025 Gator Bowl
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💰 Virginia vs. Missouri best bet
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Missouri -4 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though starting QB Beau Pribula has hit the transfer portal, Missouri should be fine with freshman Matt Zollers. Primarily because head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has said he expects to have most of his players who helped the Tigers rank eighth in rushing yards per game (234.1) and 14th in defensive SP+.
Missouri will have star running back Ahmad Hardy and its offensive line to lean on.
Virginia is dealing with injuries and potential opt-outs on their offense. That's going to make it tough to score against an elite pass rush led by Zion Young and Damon Wilson II.
Score prediction: Missouri 29, Virginia 24
🙌 Best Virginia vs. Missouri touchdown pick: Gator Bowl
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Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: 2+ TDs (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There's a pretty good argument that Hardy is the second-best running back in college football, after Heisman Trophy finalist Jeremiyah Love. With Hardy being a true sophomore and not eligible for the NFL draft, he will likely have a full workload against Virginia.
The Louisiana-Monroe transfer is a bowling ball of a runner, ranking second in the country in rushing yards after contact (1,111) and third in forced missed tackles (86).
His physical running style should hurt a Cavaliers defense ranked outside the top 25 in EPA per rush, and without Pribula, Drinkwitz will want to lean on Hardy.
The sophomore has scored multiple touchdowns in four games this season and sits fourth in the country in rushing touchdowns (16).
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Gator Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Young, Missouri | EDGE | Top 15 in the country in pressures (48) | Round 1-2 |
| Cayden Green, Missouri | OL | 2 sacks, 6 pressures allowed | Round 3-5 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr., Missouri | WR | 63 receptions, 715 receiving yards | Round 4-6 |
| Keagen Trost, Missouri | OL | 2 sacks, 7 pressures allowed | Round 4-6 |
| Damon Wilson II, Missouri | EDGE | Top 15 in the country in pressures (49) | Round 4-6 |
| Toriano Pride Jr., Missouri | CB | 2 INTs, 4 PBUs | Round 5-7 |
| J'Mari Taylor, Virginia | RB | 1,315 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs | Round 5-7 |
| Mitchell Melton, Virginia | EDGE | 10 TFLs, 5 sacks | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jalen Catalon, Missouri | SAF | 36 tackles | Round 7-UDFA |
📊 Live Virginia vs. Missouri odds: Gator Bowl
Virginia vs. Missouri opening odds
- Moneyline: Virginia +210 | Missouri -260
- Spread: Virginia +6.5 (-110) | Missouri -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
📈 Virginia vs. Missouri betting trends
| Virginia | Statistic | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 8-5 | ATS record | 6-5-1 |
| 5-7-1 | O/U record | 6-6 |
| 5.8 | Yards per play | 6.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards allowed per play | 4.6 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | -0.4 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| L, 27-20 vs. Duke | Previous result | W, 31-17 vs. Arkansas |
📺 How to watch Virginia vs. Missouri: Gator Bowl
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 27
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
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