Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction: Opening Odds & Early Picks for College Football Week 6
In a rematch of last year's jaw-dropping upset, my Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction and early picks project another high-scoring game between these two ranked SEC opponents as part of my college football predictions for Week 6.
The opening odds for Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) matchup at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., had the Commodores as a 13.5-point underdog, but the line has moved drastically with the Crimson Tide now being a 10.5-point betting favorite. However, my college football picks are locked in on the Over, rather than the spread.
🏈 Early Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 6.
⬆️ Over 57 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nobody expected the Commodores to take down the Crimson Tide last year, and that victory has completely changed the trajectory of Clark Lea's tenure in Nashville. Now, he's taking No. 16 Vanderbilt into Tide territory, hoping to pull off an even more difficult upset on the road.
To do that, points will need to be scored - last year, these two programs combined for 75 points to hit the Over on a 53-point game total. This year, both teams have explosive offenses again, led by two QBs in contention by the latest Heisman Trophy odds.
Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia ranks No. 3 in the country in QBR (88.4) and No. 5 in touchdown passes (13), while Alabama's Ty Simpson sits No. 12 in QBR (84.2) and No. 9 in touchdown passes (11). With both teams having plenty of pass catchers - Eli Stowers, Tre Richardson, and Junior Sherrill for Vandy, and Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton for Bama - both programs rank in the top 10 in EPA per pass on offense.
Defensively, both programs lag behind their offenses, ranking outside the top 30 in EPA per pass. That should help this turn into a shootout for two teams that are a combined 6-3 betting the Over this season. If the Over does hit, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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📺️ How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
When: Saturday, Oct. 4 @ 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
TV: ABC
📊 Vanderbilt vs. Alabama odds: Week 6
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📈 Vanderbilt vs. Alabama opening odds
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +350 | Alabama -450
- Spread: Vanderbilt +13.5 (-110) | Alabama -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-110) | Under 56.5 (-110)
💡 Vanderbilt vs. Alabama odds analysis
Last year, Alabama was a 23-point betting favorite when it lost by five points to Vanderbilt, so maybe it's not a surprise that the public has bet this line down across our best college football betting sites. The Crimson Tide opened as a 12.5- to 13.5-point betting favorite, but the line has come down to as low as Alabama -10.5.
While I'm wary of betting this line, I'd take the Crimson Tide at -10.5; however, I'd wait to see if this line drops even more before kickoff Saturday. Meanwhile, the game total has jumped up to as high as 57.5, after opening at 56.5, so I'd bet the Over now before it rises even more.
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