UTEP vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 8

Weekday CUSA is back, and I’m here to dish out our UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction as part of our college football picks. Kickoff is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 15 at 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN) from Shell Energy Stadium in Houston.

Despite its 1-5 record, UTEP is a 2.5-point favorite on the road versus 0-6 Sam Houston. I'm eyeing the hosts for one of my college football predictions for Week 8.

🏈 UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction

College football expert picks for Week 8; odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: Sam Houston ML (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐
• Player prop bet: Hunter Watson to score anytime TD (+160 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win UTEP vs. Sam Houston?

Neither UTEP nor Sam Houston does much well. The combined 1-11 straight-up record of the two teams is ugly. So is the combined 3-9 record against the spread.

UTEP hasn’t named a starting quarterback, but its options are five-star flameout Malachi Nelson, who ranks 111th in passing efficiency score (110.6), and inexperienced backup Skyler Locklear, who owns a 126.3 rating through 259 career attempts.

Sam Houston will keep trusting Hunter Watson, who rests at 109th in passing efficiency (113.5). The quarterback issues have led Sam Houston to rank 122nd in yards per pass attempt (5.8) and UTEP to sit 131st (5.5).

I'm leaning toward the home squad in a battle between two bad teams, especially when Sam Houston is an underdog. While head coach Phil Longo is winless in six starts, his outfit has shown enough fight through a two-point loss to Jacksonville State last week.

Meanwhile, UTEP is mired in a quarterback controversy after an 11-point loss to Liberty, in which they turned the ball over twice, and a 19-point defeat to Louisiana Tech that featured five turnovers. Neither side holds much momentum, but Sam Houston comes into this game off a decent performance and it boasts a settled quarterback situation.

Prediction: Sam Houston 27, UTEP 24

✅ UTEP vs. Sam Houston best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🟠 Sam Houston ML (+125) ⭐⭐⭐

When you can get a home underdog in a matchup between equally terrible teams, it's time to pull the trigger. Lock in Sam Houston on the moneyline at +125 (44.4%) through BetMGM – which is right at the opening number – as most of the other best sports betting sites are at +120 (45.5%) or below. A $10 bet on Sam Houston to deliver will return a tidy $12.50 profit, which is too good of a return to pass up. 

Longo’s offense has come with some promise. Remember, he was the offensive coordinator at UNC during the record-setting seasons Sam Howell put together. He didn’t get the correct weapons for the scheme after moving to Wisconsin. That may be the case again in Sam Houston, but Hunter Watson has been trending in the right direction. He threw three touchdowns and no picks last week. 

While UTEP deserves credit for its solid pass defense, there are some cracks. Liberty racked up 7.4 yards per attempt against the Flames last week. Bryson Barnes, the best quarterback UTEP has faced by passing efficiency, is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. If Watson can keep progressing, the Bearkats should score a much-needed win.

💰 Best UTEP vs. Sam Houston player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Hunter Watson to score anytime TD (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

Let’s trust Sam Houston’s starting quarterback to find the end zone. There are no yardage props available yet at the best sports betting apps. And while I presume I would like the Over for Watson’s passing yards, I’m comfortable backing him to score a rushing touchdown too.

Watson is averaging 41.6 rushing yards per contest with two scores this season. He averaged 53.9 per game with nine scores at Sam Houston last year.

The key piece here is UTEP’s solid pass defense. While the unit has been effective at limiting passing touchdowns, that's come at the expense of allowing rushing scores to signal-callers. Liberty’s Ethan Vasko took one to the house last week. Quarterbacks for Louisiana-Monroe, Texas, and Utah State all found the end zone against UTEP too, with Arch Manning even running two in by himself. 

Lock Watson in for a rushing touchdown at +160 (38.5%) odds thorugh DraftKings for a $16 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 UTEP vs. Sam Houston odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch UTEP vs. Sam Houston: Week 8

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 15
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Shell Energy Stadium (Houston)
• TV: CBSSN