USC vs. TCU Predictions & Odds Tonight | 2025 Alamo Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
My USC vs. TCU predictions for tonight's Alamo Bowl back the program that still has its starting quarterback, even though both teams will be missing some of their biggest stars.
USC enters as a 6.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff from the Alamodome in San Antonio set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). The Alamo Bowl is the fourth bowl game covered in our college bowl game predictions this week.
Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.
🏈 USC vs. TCU predictions: 2025 Alamo Bowl
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for every bowl game.
| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| USC -6.5 | -108 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tanook Hines anytime TD | -105 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 USC vs. TCU best bet
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USC -6.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
USC is expected to be without a plethora of its top players, including star receivers Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane. However, the Trojans will have quarterback Jayden Maiava, while TCU is without Josh Hoover, who's third all-time in passing yards for the program (9,629).
With Hoover in the transfer portal, TCU is starting Ken Seals, who has thrown 19 passes in two seasons with the Horned Frogs since transferring from Vanderbilt.
He's going to have a difficult time keeping up with Maiava, who has USC ranked No. 9 on offense by SP+, in what should be a shootout.
Score prediction: USC 37, TCU 27
🙌 Best USC vs. TCU touchdown pick: Alamo Bowl
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Tanook Hines, WR, USC: TD Pick (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With USC expected to be down its top two wide receivers (Lemon and Lane) and top two tight ends (Lake McRee and Walker Lyons), true freshman Tanook Hines is positioned to put on a show, and our Phil Wood is also on him to score in his USC vs. TCU anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Hines, a former four-star recruit, has quietly been one of the best freshmen in the Big Ten this season. He's fourth on USC in targets (38), receptions (29), and receiving yards (407), despite playing in a wide receiver room with two likely top 100 picks.
Now Hines is poised to step up as USC's top pass catcher in the Alamo Bowl, and it certainly helps that he has one of the most efficient passers in the country throwing him the ball.
Maiava leads the country in QBR (91.3) and ranks top five in the Power Four in big-time throw rate (6.4%). He and Hines should put plenty of pressure on a Horned Frogs defense ranked outside of the top 45 by SP+.
Maiava's play is why he's among my favorite USC vs. TCU player props, too.
⚔️ Freshman phenom TD SGP
The potential return of starting running back Waymond Jordan makes betting on freshman backup King Miller to score a bad value (-180). With that said, parlaying him and Hooks to find the end zone is my favorite TD parlay for the Alamo Bowl.
Jordan hasn't played since Oct. 11 due to an ankle injury, so I can't imagine Lincoln Riley wanting to lean on him too much if he plays, especially with him coming back to USC next season. Miller, on the other hand, is coming off one of his best games of the season.
Miller has scored five touchdowns in seven games since Jordan got injured, and if both he and Hooks score against TCU, a $10 bet at FanDuel pays a $21 profit (+210).
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Alamo Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Maiava, USC | QB | Highest QBR in the country (91.3) | Round 3-4 (returning to school) |
| Eric McAlister, TCU | WR | 5th-most receiving yards in the country (1,121) | Round 3-5 |
| Kaleb Elarms-Orr, TCU | LB | 119 tackles, 9.5 TFLs | Round 4-6 |
| Jamel Johnson, TCU | SAF | 89 tackles, 4 INTs | Round 6-UDFA |
| DJ Rogers, TCU | TE | 32 receptions, 300 yards | Round 6-UDFA |
| DeCarlos Nicholson, USC | CB | 38 tackles, 1 INT | Round 6-UDFA |
| Christian Pierce, USC | SAF | 58 tackles, 3 PBUs | Round 7-UDFA |
📊 Live USC vs. TCU odds: Alamo Bowl
USC vs. TCU opening odds
- Moneyline: USC -200 | TCU +165
- Spread: USC -4.5 (-110) | TCU +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)
📈 USC vs. TCU betting trends
| USC | Statistic | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 5-7 | ATS record | 6-6 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 6-6 |
| 7.2 | Yards per play | 6.2 |
| 5.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5 |
| +0.2 | Turnover margin | 0.0 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 29-10 vs. UCLA | Previous result | W, 45-23 vs. Cincinnati |
🤑 USC vs. TCU betting splits: Alamo Bowl
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet type | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| USC ML (-220) | 51% | 78% |
| TCU ML (+180) | 49% | 22% |
| USC -5.5 | 56% | 54% |
| TCU +5.5 | 44% | 46% |
| Over 56.5 | 60% | 65% |
| Under 56.5 | 40% | 35% |
📺 How to watch USC vs. TCU: Alamo Bowl
- Date: Tuesday, Dec. 30
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
- TV: ESPN
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