UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction & Odds: Mountain West Championship Betting Preview
I’m riding the hot hand - and in the process ignoring history - with my UNLV vs. Boise State prediction for Friday’s Mountain West Championship Game.
Kickoff from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). The host Broncos range from a 4.5- to 5.5-point betting favorite, and my point-spread recommendation is among several college football conference championship predictions we’re releasing this week.
UNLV vs. Boise State predictions: Mountain West Championship
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UNLV vs. Boise State best bet & score prediction
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UNLV +5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV not only has lost 10 straight games to Boise State - the last nine since 2011 - but it has failed to cover in five straight. That includes blowout losses in the last two Mountain West Championship Games (44-20 in 2023 and 21-7 in 2024).
Despite these facts, I’m rolling the dice with the team from Vegas - partly because the Rebels are rolling, and partly because I’m not convinced Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen is fully healthy.
Momentum, injuries favor Vegas
Madsen carved up UNLV in a 56-31 Week 8 victory, throwing for 253 yards and four touchdowns. But he suffered a lower-leg injury two weeks later, and I don’t trust him in his first game back against a vastly improved Rebels defense. Since allowing 86 total points in consecutive losses to Boise State and New Mexico, UNLV has surrendered just 63 points during a four-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Rebels’ offense has been unstoppable, tallying 29-plus points in every game this season. It's averaging 36.6 points in five road games, while going 4-1 ATS.
Take UNLV +5.5 at BetMGM, where the -115 odds suggest a 53.49% implied win probability. Bet $10 to win $8.70.
Score prediction: Boise State 31, UNLV 30
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UNLV vs. Boise State matchup to watch
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Anthony Colandrea vs. Boise State's defense
Any bet on UNLV is ostensibly a bet on Rebels quarterback Anthony Colandrea. The junior transfer from Virginia has been terrific in his first season in Las Vegas, throwing for 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 555 rushing yards and eight additional scores.
Colandrea’s best game on the ground against an FBS opponent? It came at Boise State in Week 8, when he scampered for 87 yards on 13 carries.
For UNLV to compete Friday night, Colandrea will have to deliver with both his arm and his legs. And since Boise State has been far better against the pass this season (ranked 11th in the nation) than the run (ranked 86th), I’m comfortable taking the Rebels’ elusive QB to exceed 30 rushing yards for a ninth time this year.
Best prop bet: Anthony Colandrea Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
Our Phil Wood features another bet on Colandrea in his UNLV vs. Boise State player props.
UNLV vs. Boise State odds
See live college football odds for every conference championship game.
UNLV vs. Boise State betting trends
| UNLV | Statistic | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 7-5 | ATS record | 7-4-1 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 6-6 |
| 7 | Yards per play | 5.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| +7 | Turnover margin | +5 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 42-17 at Nevada | Previous result | W, 25-25 at Utah State |
UNLV vs. Boise State weather
It will be cold and wet in Boise Friday night, with temperatures in the mid-40s and a 49% chance of rain at kickoff, increasing to 60%. Winds won’t be an issue, with sustained westerly breezes of less than 10 mph.
How to watch UNLV vs. Boise State: Mountain West Championship
- Date: Friday, Dec. 5
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
- TV: FOX
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