UAB vs. LSU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Will the Tigers Sleepwalk Through Saturday's Matchup?

College football Week 12 picks and predictions for the UAB vs. LSU matchup on November 19.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 18, 2022 10:07 AM EST • 4 min read

The LSU Tigers continue their quest to be the first two-loss team ever to make the College Football Playoff when they host the UAB Blazers this week. We're breaking down the betting with our UAB-LSU picks.

LSU (8-2, 6-1) has used a four-game winning streak to clinch its spot in the SEC Championship Game. ESPN Analytics Projections give the Tigers an 89% chance to beat UAB, a 69% chance to win at Texas A&M, and a 15% chance to beat Georgia in the conference championship. That amounts to a 5% chance that they become the first-ever two-loss CFP team.

UAB (5-5, 3-4) needs a win this week or next week at Louisiana Tech to be bowl eligible. However, the schedule does not work in its favor to do so, considering the Blazers are 0-4 away from home.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 12 game between UAB and LSU (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UAB vs. LSU Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Weather: 53 degrees, 50% chance of precipitation, 8 mph NE wind

UAB vs. LSU Odds

UAB vs. LSU Odds Analysis

LSU opened as 15-point favorites but have been bet down to -14.5 across all sportsbooks. The Tigers are popular favorites, attracting 89% of the bets and 83% of the cash.

The total is also unanimously at 52.5 points across the board. The O/U has held firm at that number all week despite 67% of the tickets and 77% of the handle backing the Under.

UAB vs. LSU Picks

Spread: UAB +14.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ★★
Over/Under: Under 52.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★
Team Prop: LSU first half team total Over 17.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ★★

UAB vs. LSU ATS Pick

UAB +14.5 (-105) ★★

UAB is 0-4 ATS on the road and has covered just one of its previous five games overall. Conversely, LSU is 5-1 ATS at home, the second-best home cover percentage in the SEC. Despite these trends, we are still backing the underdogs, as LSU will likely have its sights set on Texas A&M and Georgia in the next two weeks as its best chances to build its CFP resume.

UAB utilizes a methodical, run-first offense led by one of the best running backs in the country, in DeWayne McBride. McBride is just 35 yards behind Illinois' Chase Brown for the most rushing yards in the country, despite missing the season's first game. In addition, his 6.9 yards per attempt are the second-most of all running backs with at least 150 attempts. He is complemented by quarterback Dylan Hopkins, who ranks in the top ten in FBS in Passer Rating (165.3), despite consistently pushing the ball downfield with 9.9 yards per attempt (third in the country).

Though all sportsbooks are in unison with this +14.5 point total, we are making this wager at DraftKings, as its juice (-105) to back UAB is less than its competitors.

UAB vs. LSU O/U Pick

Under 52.5 (-110) ★★★

Despite UAB's gaudy offensive numbers between its quarterback-running back tandem, the Under is 3-0 in its three non-conference games. In its toughest game to date against Liberty, Hopkins was limited to 10-of-15 passing for 114 yards, and the team scored just 14 points despite McBride's 177 yards on the ground. McBride should find it tougher sledding against an LSU defense that entered last week ranked in the top 20 in Defensive Finishing Drives.

UAB's secondary ranked in the top 20 nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Efficiency Defense for most of the season. Per Brody Miller, LSU's offensive line entered last week ranked No. 1 in Offensive Stuff Rate and No. 5 in pressure allowed. Thus, the Tigers have a clear path to success running the football, but we expect them to play at a slower pace than their 65th-ranked pace entering last week to avoid any catastrophic injuries with two big games ahead of them.

UAB vs. LSU Prop Pick

LSU first half team total Over 17.5 (+100) ★★

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has five games this season with a rushing and passing touchdown. He will likely be given the majority of his zone reads in the first half, intending to get up big early and make UAB dimensional by abandoning the running game. There will also be an emphasis placed on racing to a big early halftime lead, ideally so the team can rest players before heading to College Station next week.

Where to Bet on UAB vs. LSU Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

UAB-LSU picks made 11/18/2022 at 6:12 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”