Troy vs. Old Dominion Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview
With weekday MACtion through, Thursday offers up a midweek Sun Belt battle, so let’s dive into our Troy vs. Old Dominion prediction as both teams jockey at the top of the conference. The action is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Old Dominion is an 11.5-point betting favorite for this matchup on their home turf of S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Va. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football Week 12 predictions so that you don’t miss out on any winning plays!
✅ Troy vs. Old Dominion prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12.
💵 Best Troy vs. Old Dominion bets
- Game prediction: Troy +11.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 52.5 (-108 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Tae Meadows Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Troy vs. Old Dominion odds
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🏈 Troy vs. Old Dominion preview & score prediction
Old Dominion entered conference play projected to be a top contender after it blew out Virginia Tech, took down Liberty, and played Indiana close – but then the wheels fell off. A blowout loss at Marshall followed by another blowout loss at James Madison derailed the team’s campaign for a conference title, and it’s unclear just how good the Monarchs are.
When filtering the advanced stats for conference play (all of the numbers in this article are just from Week 7 onward), these teams aren’t far apart. In offensive points added per play, Troy ranks eighth in the conference (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks 12th (0.09). Defensively, Troy ranks seventh (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks sixth (0.14). Success rate isn’t much different. Troy ranks 12th offensively and eighth defensively; Old Dominion ranks seventh and fifth.
Why is Troy Catching 11.5 Points?
These teams have looked relatively even in conference play, but I’ll give the slight edge to Old Dominion due to the high success rate, conference-leading quarterback by passing efficiency in Colton Joseph, and home-field advantage. Still, are all of those factors worth 11.5 points? I’m not sold. Neither is the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), which makes this Old Dominion -9.3.
Troy does a few things really well, and they make this line exciting. The Trojans lead the Sun Belt in defensive line yards and are the only team allowing less than 2.5 per play. Old Dominion is fifth-worst at generating offensive line yards and is second-worst in defensive line yards. That gives Troy an interesting angle offensively as it ranks third in power run success rate (73.3%).
An early Old Dominion lead could put Troy in the tough spot of trying to play from behind, but I’m willing to take the risk on them for 11.5 points. You can lock this one in for -115 (53.5%) at Caesars to score an $8.70 profit from a $10 bet.
Score prediction: Old Dominion 23, Troy 20
💡 More Week 12 predictions
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for Week 12.
🆚 Troy vs. Old Dominion matchup to watch
Tae Meadows vs. Old Dominion Front Seven
Troy running back Tae Meadows will benefit from facing an Old Dominion defensive front that struggles to control the line of scrimmage. Meadows’ offensive line isn’t giving him a ton of help, but if there were ever an opponent for them to look good against, it’s this one. Troy has played three of the top five Sun Belt defenses by line yards in just five conference games.
The two games versus bad defensive lines speak volumes. Meadows missed the action against Louisiana’s awful defensive front, but his backup, Jordan Lovett, ran for 113. When Meadows played against South Alabama’s similarly bad unit, he ran wild for 79 yards. The Trojans also won both games outright and ran at least 39 times in each contest.
With Meadows’ rushing prop total set to a reasonable 63.5, a number he cleared against FCS Nicholls State, Clemson, Buffalo, South Alabama, and UL-Monroe, let’s buy the Over for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel to score an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.
Best prop bet: Tae Meadows Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Troy vs. Old Dominion betting trends
| Troy | Statistic | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L record | 6-3 |
| 6-3 | ATS record | 5-4 |
| 5 / 4 | O/U record | 4 / 4 |
| 4.93 | Yards per play | 7.00 |
| 5.50 | Yards allowed per play | 5.13 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -4 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 10-23 vs. Arkansas State | Previous result | W, 31-6 vs. UL-Monroe |
🌤️ Troy vs. Old Dominion weather
The weather is unlikely to play a significant factor in Thursday’s Troy vs. Old Dominion game. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s at kickoff that will dip into the 40s and no precipitation. Double-digit wind gusts in the low teens could be a factor but are unlikely to do much.
📺 How to watch Troy vs. Old Dominion
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: S.B. Ballard Stadium (Norfolk, Va.)
- TV: ESPN
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