Troy vs. James Madison Prediction & Odds: Sun Belt Championship Betting Preview
If you like competitive conference championship games, you won’t like my Troy vs. James Madison prediction for Friday night’s Sun Belt Championship clash at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisburg, Va. (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
James Madison is a consensus 22.5-point betting favorite, and I’m backing the big home chalk with a pick that’s part of our conference championship game predictions.
Troy vs. James Madison predictions
💵 Best Troy vs. James Madison bets
Troy vs. James Madison best bet & score prediction
See all of our experts' college football picks for every conference championship game.
James Madison -23 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Troy snuck into the Sun Belt Championship game because it stunned Southern Miss 28-18 as a 7-point underdog on Saturday, and because the Sun Belt is the only FBS league that still has a two-division format.
Were the latter not the case, Old Dominion would be facing James Madison in this contest. As it is, Old Dominion actually factored into my decision to back James Madison as a massive favorite Friday — despite the Dukes losing their head coach to UCLA this week.
Dukes piling up blowout wins
Back in Week 8, James Madison hammered Old Dominion 63-27 as a 3-point home favorite. ODU subsequently closed the regular season with five straight wins by a combined score of 127-47. Among those victories: a 33-0 whitewash of Troy in Week 12.
Yep, James Madison crushed Old Dominion by 36 points, and a month later Old Dominion pounded Troy by 33 points.
Granted, the Trojans are 5-2 ATS as an underdog with four outright wins. But James Madison went 8-0 in Sun Belt play, cashing in four of its final five league contests. Victory margins in those four games: 35, 12, 48 and 49 points.
Lay the big number with James Madison at bet365. The -110 odds equate to a 52.38% implied win probability, and you’ll pocket $9.09 on a $10 wager.
Score prediction: James Madison 38, Troy 13
Our College Football expert Mike Spector has a best bet in this game in his College Football Best Bets This Week.
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Troy vs. James Madison matchup to watch
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QB Goose Crowder vs. James Madison defense
Back in Week 2, Troy quarterback Goose Crowder passed for 223 yards in a 27-16 loss at Clemson. Crowder got hurt the following week at Memphis, missed the next six games, then split snaps with Tucker Kilcrease in the Trojans’ Week 12 contest at Old Dominion.
Crowder finally regained full control of the offense in Troy’s last two games, and the fifth-year senior lit up Georgia State and Southern Miss for a combined 646 yards.
In other words, Crowder can sling it. And he’ll probably be forced to do so a lot at James Madison. I just can't see him picking up large chunks of yards against the Dukes, who have the nation’s 12th-best pass defense (169 yards per outing).
By comparison, Southern Miss ranks 78th versus the pass, while Georgia State is 105th.
Best prop bet: Goose Crowder, Under 197.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
We also have a trio of players to target in our Troy vs. James Madison player props.
Troy vs. James Madison odds
See live college football odds for every conference championship game.
Troy vs. James Madison betting trends
| Troy | Statistic | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L record | 11-1 |
| 8-4 | ATS record | 8-4 |
| 5-7 | O/U record | 5-7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per play | 6.4 |
| 5.7 | Yards allowed per play | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 28-18 @ Southern Miss | Previous result | W, 59-10 @ Coastal Carolina |
Troy vs. James Madison weather
It will be cloudy and frigid in Harrisburg, Va., on Friday night, with kickoff temperatures in the upper 20s and dropping to the mid-20s. The good news is that an early-morning snow storm will pass through before game time, and winds will be calm throughout the night.
How to watch Troy vs. James Madison: Sun Belt Championship
- Date: Friday, Dec. 5
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Bridgeforth Stadium (Harrisburg, Va.)
- TV: ESPN
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