Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

With another exciting day of MACtion on tap, let’s dive into our Toledo vs. Miami (OH) prediction in a crucial conference battle. This game is scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 12 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio.

Toledo is a 3.5-point betting favorite with the MAC’s most efficient quarterback in Tucker Gleason, but the Rockets have to play on the road. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football Week 12 predictions!

✅ Toledo vs. Miami (OH) prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12.

📊 Toledo vs. Miami (OH) odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 12.

🏈 Toledo vs. Miami (OH) preview & score prediction

In a pivotal battle near the top of the MAC, Toledo looks to bounce back from a 3-2 start in conference play by taking on Miami. While the results haven’t been great for the Rockets, the numbers have been. Toledo leads the MAC in the FPI, the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. Miami (OH) ranks third in all three.

Toledo’s losses are forgivable. They both came by a single score on the road. In the five-point loss to Bowling Green, Toledo won the yardage battle by over 200, but a pivotal fumble at their own one-yard line sunk them. Miami’s lone conference loss to Ohio is also forgivable, as it was also a one-score road loss, but the RedHawks lost the yardage battle.

Do We Need to Fade Toledo on the Road?

I’m bullish on Toledo and quarterback Tucker Gleason, who leads the MAC in passing efficiency (151.2), but I’m not sure the Rockets should be getting this many points on the road. Gleason’s career home passing efficiency (164.8) and road passing efficiency (124.2) point to him relying on a friendly home environment. Though it’s a smaller sample, that split is even more egregious this year (205.4 to 110.1).

We’ve also got a Miami (OH) team that routinely beats the market. Since head coach Chuck Martin took over in 2014, the RedHawks are 80-60-1 against the spread and are 55-35-1 against the spread in conference play. They’re also 12-8-1 against the spread as home underdogs. Meanwhile, Toledo head coach Jason Candle is 23-30 against the spread in road games and 15-20 against the spread when listed as a road favorite.

I get the hype behind Toledo this season, but I’ll believe they can control a road game when I see it. Let’s back the RedHawks to cover a full 4 points for -108 (51.9%) at DraftKings to score a $9.26 profit on a $10 bet.

Score prediction: Miami (OH) 24, Toledo 21

🆚 Toledo vs. Miami (OH) matchup to watch

Dequan Finn vs. Toledo Rushing Defense

Miami (OH) quarterback Dequan Finn, formerly a five-year player at Toledo, returned to the MAC after one season at Baylor to take over the starting job here in Oxford. While both sides will be quite familiar with each other, I have some doubts about Toledo’s defense, especially versus mobile quarterbacks.

Mobile quarterbacks have been a problem for Toledo this year. In both of the team’s conference losses, the opposing quarterback led the way in rushing yards. Wazzu’s Zevi Eckhaus did the same in another road game that Toledo dropped two weeks ago, racking up a whopping 74 yards on the ground.

Finn averages 49.4 rushing yards per game and has at least 50 rushing yards in four of his five conference games, including both home games. Let’s buy him for Over 45.5 rushing yards at -114 (53.3%) on FanDuel for an $8.77 profit on a $10 bet.

Best prop bet: Dequan Finn Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Toledo vs. Miami (OH) betting trends

🌤️ Toledo vs. Miami (OH) weather

The weather may play somewhat of a factor in Wednesday’s Toledo vs. Miami (OH) game. While the chance of precipitation is 0%, double-digit wind gusts are a risk, and the temperature will steadily tick toward freezing over the course of the evening.

📺 How to watch Toledo vs. Miami (OH)

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 12
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Yager Stadium (Oxford, Ohio)
• TV: ESPN2