Toledo vs. Louisville Predictions: 2025 Boca Raton Bowl Odds, Picks & Best Bet Today
While neither team enters the matchup at full strength for the Boca Raton Bowl, my Toledo vs. Louisville predictions are betting on the team that's clearly in better shape when it comes to roster retention.
Louisville is a 6.5-point betting favorite for today's 2 p.m. ET (ESPN) kickoff from Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla., in the second bowl featured in our college football predictions this week.
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🏈 Toledo vs. Louisville prediction: 2025 Boca Raton Bowl
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville -7 | -108 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miller Moss anytime TD | +310 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Louisville -6.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Toledo is depleted heading into the Boca Raton Bowl. Head coach Jason Candle left for UConn, defensive coordinator Vince Kehres left for Syracuse, and four key starters are in the transfer portal. Additionally, starting quarterback Tucker Gleason isn't expected to play.
So while Louisville is dealing with several injuries, the Cardinals are in better shape. Star pass-rusher Clev Lubin leads a Louisville defense poised to shut down a Rockets offense that's ranked just No. 70 by SP+, and that was with Gleason in the lineup.
Miller Moss should only need a handful of scoring drives to win this decisively.
Score prediction: Louisville 26, Toledo 17
💡 More college football predictions
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🙌 Best Toledo vs. Louisville TD pick: Boca Raton Bowl
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Miller Moss, QB, Louisville: Anytime TD (+310) ⭐⭐⭐
If we knew what Louisville's running back situation would be today, the best TD bet would likely focus on the Cardinals' starting running back. But head coach Jeff Brohm has been playing coy about which of his top three running backs will be available.
While my best guess is Keyjuan Brown will play, his price to score is sitting at -185 (though I do like him to score twice at +290 via FanDuel). Instead, I think the best value is banking on Moss to score his 10th touchdown of the season.
💰️ Louisville TD SGP
It's not clear which running back will play for Louisville, but Brohm has implied he will have at least one of them. With Keyjuan Brown seemingly the most likely to play, I love parlaying him and Moss to both find the end zone against Toledo. An SGP on both to score is priced at +503 at FanDuel.
Although the USC transfer isn't much of a scrambler, he's a QB sneak connoisseur. Moss has tallied a rushing touchdown in eight of his 11 games this season, including in seven of his last eight and in three straight.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Boca Raton Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo | SAF | Allowing 50.3 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 1-2 |
| Clev Lubin, Louisville | EDGE | 6th-most pressures in the country (59) | Round 3-5 |
| Caullin Lacy, Louisville | WR | 547 receiving yards, 674 return yards | Round 5-7 |
| Wesley Bailey, Louisville | EDGE | 7th-most pressures in the ACC (44) | Round 6-UDFA |
| Avery Smith, Toledo | CB | 6th-most forced incompletions in the country (12) | Round 6-UDFA |
| Chip Trayanum, Toledo | RB | 1,157 scrimmage yards, 13 TDs | Round 7-UDFA |
📊 Live Toledo vs. Louisville odds: Boca Raton Bowl
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Toledo vs. Louisville opening odds
- Moneyline: Toledo +265 | Louisville -330
- Spread: Toledo +8.5 (-110) | Louisville -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
📈 Toledo vs. Louisville betting trends
| Toledo | Statistic | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 9-3 | ATS record | 4-8 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 5-7 |
| 6.3 | Yards per play | 6.0 |
| 3.9 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | +0.3 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| W, 21-3 vs. Central Michigan | Previous result | W, 41-0 vs. Kentucky |
📺 How to watch Toledo vs. Louisville: Boca Raton Bowl
- Date: Tuesday, Dec. 23
- Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
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