Texas vs. Georgia Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview
Our Texas vs. Georgia prediction backs the road underdog on Saturday as the race for the SEC title heats up.
Kickoff from Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). No. 5 Georgia is a 6.5-point betting favorite over No. 10 Texas, which we expect to remain competitive in our college football Week 12 predictions.
✅ Texas vs. Georgia prediction & expert picks
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🏈 Texas vs. Georgia preview & score prediction
Following its loss to Florida, Texas has rallied to win four straight behind up-and-down performances from quarterback Arch Manning. The preseason Heisman favorite now ranks 45th in passing efficiency with a score of 146.9 after exploding for 189.2 against Vanderbilt. He’ll look to carry that momentum into Sanford Stadium.
This year’s Georgia team isn’t as dominant as those of the recent past. The loss to Alabama was troubling, as were the narrow wins over Auburn and Florida. Still, this is a top-7 team in the FPI, Fremeau Efficiency Index, and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, edging out Texas in all three metrics. Still, Georgia is an unimpressive 4-4 against the spread this year.
Ride with the desperate Longhorns
The key difference between Texas and Georgia heading into this game is motivation. Georgia can make the playoffs with another loss; Texas, barring some chaos, cannot. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has gotten enough out of this team to keep the Longhorns in the mix. But I’m not riding with Texas based on spot alone: several key stats point to value here, too.
The Longhorns excel at generating takeaways while limiting turnovers. Georgia does not. The Longhorns rank third in the conference in defensive line yards (2.3) and stuff rate (23.2%), which will make short-yardage situations tricky for the Bulldogs.
If Texas can limit Georgia on the ground, the game will come down to what Gunner Stockton can do through the air. With Georgia’s offense ranked a dreadful third-worst in the SEC by explosiveness and Texas ranked fourth-best in the conference by defensive havoc rate (19.4%), I don’t think it will go well. Back Texas to cover the 6.5-point spread for -110 (52.4% implied probability) at BetMGM for a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
Score prediction: Georgia 21, Texas 20
💡 More Week 12 predictions
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🆚 Texas vs. Georgia matchup to watch
Nate Frazier vs. Texas defensive line
Georgia running back Nate Frazier has a tough task ahead of him on Saturday. With the Texas defensive line near the top of the conference in line yards and stuff rate, he won’t have an easy job at the line of scrimmage. Frazier did run wild for 181 yards on 12 carries at Mississippi State last week, but that game has seriously skewed the market for his props.
When Frazier and Georgia took on the conference-leading Auburn defensive line, it did not go well. Frazier tallied just 24 yards on 10 carries. His teammate in the backfield, Chauncey Bowens, recorded five yards on four carries. Texas’ defensive front isn’t quite as strong as Auburn’s, but it’s comparable, and results similar to those we saw against Auburn are likely.
Further, Texas has one of the best rushing defenses on a per-game and per-play basis. Texas ranks second nationally in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.4) and third in rushing yards allowed per game (78.2). Even if Georgia does manage to win this one - as the market expects - it’ll be tricky for Frazier to get going.
Frazier’s rushing prop is set at 57.5, which is generous given the matchup. I like him to stay under that number for -114 (53.3% implied probability) at FanDuel.
Best prop bet: Nate Frazier Under 57.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Texas vs. Georgia betting trends
| Texas | Statistic | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L record | 8-1 |
| 2-6 | ATS record | 4-4 |
| 4-5 | O/U record | 4-4 |
| 5.76 | Yards per play | 6 |
| 4.68 | Yards allowed per play | 4.95 |
| +8 | Turnover margin | -2 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 34-31 vs. Vanderbilt | Previous result | W, 41-21 vs. Mississippi State |
🌤️ Texas vs. Georgia weather
The weather is unlikely to play a major role in Saturday’s Texas vs. Georgia game. The forecast calls for clear skies and a zero percent chance of precipitation at kickoff, with minimal wind gusts.
📺 How to watch Texas vs. Georgia
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Sanford Stadium (Athens, Ga.)
- TV: ABC
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