Texas vs. Florida Prediction: Early Picks for College Football Week 6
Our college football predictions for Week 6 continue with my early Texas vs. Florida prediction.
My college football picks target a low-scoring game, backing Under 43.5 points in Saturday's SEC matchup at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Texas is a 6.5-point road betting favorite in Gainesville, Fla.
🏈 Early Texas vs. Florida prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 6.
⬇️ Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you told me this would be the game total for an Arch Manning-led Texas and a DJ Lagway-led Florida back in August, I would have told you to drop bags on the Over like you were a booster at SMU in the 80s recruiting a five-star.
But the latest Heisman Trophy odds have Manning and Lagway both trading at +5000 or longer for a reason. Neither former five-star has lived up to the hype, and both rank in the top 30 in the country in turnover-worthy play rate.
While Manning's counting stats have gotten a boost since his poor showing against Ohio State, those three performances came against three Group of Five programs that are a combined 2-11 on the season. The Longhorns' offense is still just No. 116 in EPA per pass, and the run game could struggle too against a Florida defense that sits No. 20 in EPA per rush and has allowed 21.3 PPG in three games against FBS opponents.
It's a similar story for Lagway and the Gators, whose offense ranks No. 114 in EPA per pass and has averaged 11 points per game during its three-game losing skid. It's not going to get easier against a Texas defense that ranks top 10 in SP+, No. 15 in EPA per pass, and No. 4 in EPA per rush.
These two programs are a combined 7-1 betting the Under this season, and if they combined for fewer than 44 points, a $10 bet at DraftKings pays a $9.09 profit.
📊 Texas vs. Florida odds: Week 6
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📈 Texas vs. Florida opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas -285 | Florida +225
- Spread: Texas -6.5 (-110) | Florida +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
💡 Texas vs. Florida odds analysis
Texas only opened as a 6.5- to 7.5-point betting favorite, despite Florida being 0-3 against FBS teams and the Longhorns ranking No. 9 in the latest top-25 poll. The spread hasn't seen much movement at our best college football betting sites, but I would bet it now if you're backing the Longhorns. As kickoff approaches, I wouldn't be surprised to see the public bet this to an 8.5-point spread given the Manning love we've seen this season.
The game total, on the other hand, could be worth waiting on. While I'm happily taking the Under with it set at 43.5, I think it could tick a point higher by Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect it to drop any lower.
How to watch Texas vs. Florida
- When: Saturday, Oct. 4
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
💡 College football Week 6 predictions
- Kentucky vs. Georgia prediction
- Air Force vs. Navy prediction
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction
- Texas vs. Florida prediction
- Miami vs. Florida State prediction
- Penn State vs. UCLA prediction
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction
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