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Texas A&M vs. Miami Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 2: New Aggies Offense to Face True Test

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 9, 2023 5:05 PM EDT • 3 min 49 sec read.

The new-look Texas A&M Aggies offense faces its first challenge of 2023 as we look at our favorite Texas A&M vs. Miami prediction based on the best college football odds.

Over the past two seasons, Texas A&M has been one of college football's most underperforming teams, starting each year ranked at No. 6 in the preseason AP poll and ending unranked, including a last-place finish in the SEC West last season. In Week 1, the Aggies covered as 37.5-point favorites against New Mexico, defeating the Lobos with a commanding 52-10 victory, thanks in part to a 35-7 lead at halftime.

Miami also started last year ranked in the preseason AP poll (No. 16), but finished unranked after going 5-7 and 3-5 in ACC play. Head coach Mario Cristobal’s seat is hot entering year two after the team endured its second losing season since 2014. If Miami does not make a bowl appearance this year, it would be the first time since 1977-79 that the Hurricanes failed to go bowling in three straight years.

The Hurricanes also started the season with a cover, beating Miami (OH) 38-3 as 16.5-point favorites.

Here is our best Texas A&M vs. Miami prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas A&M vs. Miami prediction: Week 2

Texas A&M team total Under 28.5 (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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It is anyone’s guess if Jimbo Fisher has the Aggies on the right path after completing his worst season (5-7) as a head coach. Texas A&M figures to earn its way back to a bowl after not being eligible last season for the first time since 2008, but there are many reasons to believe the Aggies offense will not be fixed so easily.

Texas A&M averaged 22.8 points per game last year (13th in SEC), 360.7 yards per game (12th), a 52 Total QBR (13th), and 1.7 points per drive (last). The Aggies scored a touchdown on just 20% of their offensive drives and were held below 40 points every game.

Those are big reasons why Fisher brought in Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator, but the team’s offensive SP+ dropped sharply from 28th to 71st over the last two seasons and now faces a defense that returns 10 starters.

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Miami’s experience on defense should help it improve from a unit that allowed the most pass plays of 50-plus yards last season. However, we do not foresee Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman taking advantage of that weakness. 

Instead, we expect Fisher to play it conservatively and lean on a defense projected to finish second in defensive SP+ this season. In addition, the Aggies started 10 different offensive linemen last year, and that lack of cohesion and consistency in a starting lineup should spill over into the early part of this season and succumb to a Hurricanes defense that finished in the top 60 in defensive success rate.

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Texas A&M vs. Miami best odds

bet365 (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 27.5 (-115)OFFOFFOFFOver 28.5 (-110)
Under 27.5 (-115)OFFOFFOFFUnder 28.5 (-120)

The team total prop is unique to only a handful of sportsbooks, and others like FanDuel and Caesars will likely release odds for this market before kickoff. But if we are only comparing bet365 and DraftKings for right now, bet365 is our easy choice for our go-to shop as it offers a total higher than the key number of 28. 

Looking at DraftKings’ O/U for Texas A&M’s team total touchdowns being set at 3.5 and the Under being juiced to -155, that makes us even more confident that the Aggies will stay Under bet365’s listed team total.

Texas A&M vs. Miami odds

Texas A&M vs. Miami odds analysis

All major sportsbooks are in unison with Texas A&M’s -4.5 point spread, except for BetRivers, which is currently at -4. Oddsmakers must have been impressed with the Hurricanes’ blowout victory over Miami (OH), as the lookahead line for this game was as high as -7.5 at BetMGM and FanDuel.

However, Aggies backers quickly weighed in at this lower number, with the point spread wagers 2/1 on the favorites.       

FanDuel and BetRivers are the only two major sportsbooks with an O/U of 51.5 instead of the more common total of 51. This is up drastically from last week’s lookahead line of 47.5 and may not be done rising, as 75% of the early wagers have backed the Over.                              

Texas A&M vs. Miami game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 89 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 11-mph E winds

Texas A&M-Miami prediction made Thursday at 6:32 a.m. ET.

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”