Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

Dubinion leads the Sun Belt in rushing yards with 756, good for 94.5 per contest. Although his volume has fallen off considerably since the start of the season, much of that has to do with game script. Fortunately, the matchup screams value: Georgia Southern’s defensive front ranks last nationally in line yards allowed per rush (3.6) and second-level yards allowed per rush (1.6). Even if Dubinion’s volume remains lower than it was to start the year, he won’t need a ton of looks to rack up rushing yards.

Helton’s fast-paced offensive scheme works: it has routinely brought this team to the postseason despite underwhelming defensive play. The Eagles are 23-22-2 against the spread since Helton’s arrival in 2022 – and 23-19-2 in regular season play. The question is simply whether he has the personnel necessary to execute, but the results so far are encouraging. With App State’s offense in disarray and no clear starter at quarterback, we’re getting too many points to pass up backing Georgia Southern.

Singleton is averaging 3.6 receptions and 56.4 receiving yards per game, both below this line, but the matchup is a juicy one. UTSA ranks second-worst in the American by explosiveness allowed, almost all of which has come via the pass.

Six different Tulane and North Texas receivers tallied at least one 30-plus-yard reception over UTSA’s last two games.

One consequence of South Florida's fast-paced offense (which ranks second in seconds per play) is that opposing teams run more plays: The Bulls rank 129th in opponent plays per game (77).

With McCown averaging 6.7 yards per attempt and UTSA throwing it more than half the time, I like his odds of going Over tonight.

Nimrod leads in receiving yards (466) and yards per reception (20.3). He has three touchdowns on the year. UTSA’s inability to stop opposing passing plays bodes well for Nimrod’s ability to get into the end zone. Should Nimrod suit up, he is a great bet to find pay dirt.

The biggest reason for backing the Under on Brown’s 2.5 passing touchdowns is South Florida’s recent success running the football. The Bulls rank 11th nationally in rushing, and have totaled 250-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games. 

South Florida should lean on its running game against a UTSA defense that entered last week 28th in EPA per pass but 106th in defending the run. 

South Florida is 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season, and covered its only game off a loss this year. It has also won five consecutive home games by an average of 34 points. Meanwhile, UTSA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Before last week's disastrous defensive performance against West Virginia, Houston had held three consecutive teams to 112 yards or fewer, holding every rusher to 64 yards or fewer during that span. Montgomery has rushed for 56 or fewer yards in two of his last three.

UCF is averaging 29.5 points per game with Tayven Jacon under center. Though UCF is allowing just 18.8 points per game, the Knights have allowed at least 27 in three of five Big 12 games.

UCF is spiraling, losing four of its last five, and giving up at least 27 in three of five. Houston has scored at least 31 in three of four games.

Shazz Preston is Tulane's second-leading receiver, but his 329 yards aren't overwhelming (nor are his 22 receptions in eight games). Last week, Preston managed just two catches for 15 yards against UTSA, whose secondary ranks 114th in the nation.

Not only is quarterback Jeff Retzlaff the leading rusher for Tulane, but his 513 rushing yards are almost 200 more than any of his teammates. Retzlaff has cracked 50 yards in six of the Green Wave's eight games, putting up 62 and 63 yards in the last two contests.

Greg Desrosiers Jr. has scored seven touchdowns in Memphis' first five American Conference games, reaching the end zone at least once in each of those contests.

The Memphis running back also scored three times in last year's upset win at Tulane, which has yielded 10 rushing scores in 2025.

Makai Lemon is among the best receivers in the country, ranking top three in the Big Ten in yards per route run (3.29). He's been at his best at home this season, averaging seven receptions for 117 yards across four games.

Don't let Northwestern's record deceive you; this isn't a team built to play with the best teams in the Big Ten. The Wildcats are 1-2 on the road this year with an offense averaging just 15.3 PPG in those games. Meanwhile, USC is the best offense the Wildcats have seen, with Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon having the Trojans ranked No. 3 on offense by SP+.

Caleb Komolafe has cleared 70 rushing yards in four of his last five games, including a career-high 125 in Northwestern's most recent contest against Nebraska.

Meanwhile, USC allowed Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love and Nebraska's Emmett Johnson to compile 393 rushing yards in the last two games alone.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava scored his fifth rushing touchdown last week at Nebraska, tying him for the team-lead in that category.

He's a solid bet to get No. 6 versus a Northwestern defense that surrendered a total of five rushing scores in two of its last three games.

USC's leading receiver Makai Lemon had a season-low two catches for 18 yards last week against Nebraska's No. 2-ranked pass defense.

Lemon will struggle again Friday versus Northwestern, which has the 13th-best pass defense in the nation.

Northwestern is 5-2-1 ATS this year, with its biggest road upset being the win at Penn State that led directly to James Franklin’s firing. 

Prior to the Wildcats’ bye last week, they held Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola to 6.4 yards per attempt and a 54.3 QBR. Considering the Cornhuskers entered that game ranked in the top 20 in passing down Success Rate and Passing Success Rate, that bodes well for Northwestern being able to slow down USC’s vaunted passing attack.  

For James Madison to earn the G5 CFP spot over a team from the American, it needs to blow out its Sun Belt competition. It's done just that, beating five of six G5 opponents by double digits, including talented teams like Texas State and Old Dominion by more than 30. With Alonza Barnett III being a top G5 QB alongside a dominant defense, JMU should cover for a third straight game.

Bachmeier entered Week 10 ranked seventh in rushing touchdowns (nine) among FBS passers. But he should be limited on the ground by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and a Texas Tech run defense that leads FBS with 74.6 rushing yards allowed per game. In addition, the Red Raiders are 10th in tackles for loss and 12th in quarterback sacks per game.

Texas Tech is off to its best start to a season (8-1) since 2008, and it is largely because of how dominant it has been on both sides of the ball. 

Texas Tech and Indiana are the only two teams in the country ranked in the top five in both scoring offense and points per game allowed. The Red Raiders are also one of three teams (Indiana and Oregon are the others) to rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, and total defense. 

The winner of this game will potentially punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship, and while Texas Tech is coming off a blowout win against Kansas State, the Red Raiders' offense was sporadic for three quarters. BYU's defense should challenge Behren Morton and Co., while Texas Tech's defense will create plenty of problems for Cougars freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. With players like Jack Kelly and Faletau Satuala taking the field for BYU's defense and defenders like David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez leading Texas Tech's, points will be scarce. 

This is an extreme “trap spot” for Georgia, with this road game sandwiched in between games against its most fierce rival (Florida) and a ranked Texas squad. 

Mississippi State can play more freely after snapping its 16-game conference losing streak. Even though it came against an Arkansas team that is amid its longest losing streak in a season (seven games) since 2019, the fact that the Bulldogs won on the road should make the cowbells at Davis Wade Stadium this week ring even louder.

Allen ran for 76 yards last week against Ohio State, but 26 of those came on his first carry of the game. Indiana is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, and with his team huge underdogs, Allen won't get enough carries to hit this Over.

Indiana has the nation's top scoring offense and the third-best scoring defense. Penn State relies heavily on the run, but Indiana's rush defense is allowing just 80.0 yards per game.

Allen has scored in every game this season, including three total touchdowns in the last two games played without starting quarterback Drew Allar. That alone makes any plus-money odds for Allen to score a touchdown a steal.

Grunkemeyer has thrown for 93 and 145 yards in his two starts. While his 82.3 QBR against Ohio State was respectable, Penn State should be able to rely on its ground game more by staying closer early than it did in Columbus last week.

The Boilermakers have allowed just one passing touchdown over the last three weeks. In addition, no quarterback has thrown for three or more touchdowns against them in any game this season, even amid a three-game losing streak earlier this year when they allowed an average of 47.3 points per game.

Outside of a 31-7 non-conference loss to Colorado, Delaware has scored 25-plus points in six of its other seven games. But it should face one of its stiffest tests this week against Louisiana Tech, who ranks fourth in FBS in Defensive Havoc.

Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy is the fourth-leading rusher among FBS running backs, and has carried 20-plus times in six games. 

While he has gone Over this projected total in just half of the team’s four conference games, he should be given plenty of opportunities in a ball-control game plan that looks to keep Texas A&M’s 11th-ranked scoring offense off the field.

With Eli Drinkwitz's name picking up steam on coaching hot boards, the distraction angle is real. The public could lean toward the Aggies on this line as the week evolves, making this a bet to place earlier in the week before potential line movement.

Without a doubt, Texas A&M has been the most consistent program in the SEC this season behind an underrated defense and a dynamic offense led by Marcel Reed. However, the Aggies haven't played a truly high-quality opponent since Notre Dame in mid-September. Though Missouri has two losses, it played both Alabama and Vanderbilt close as an underdog, and it has the talent in the trenches to keep things tight with Texas A&M. Coming off a bye week, Eli Drinkwitz should have Matt Zollers prepared to start at QB, and it doesn't hurt having an elite running back like Ahmad Hardy.

Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski is averaging less than 120 passing yards per game and had just 68 yards in Week 8 against Penn State's 14th-ranked pass defense.

Oregon has the nation's No. 1 pass defense, allowing less than 125 yards per contest.

Iowa and Oregon boast two of the best defenses in the country, with both ranking in the top six in points allowed. Throw in the Hawkeyes' anemic offense and some wet, cold weather, and this Top 25 clash has 20-10 final written all over it.

When Iowa is an underdog, it knows how to turn those games into rockfights. The Under has cashed in each of Iowa’s last eight games as ‘dogs, and the five games at Kinnick Stadium this season have seen an average of 44.6 points scored. 

This is a classic Iowa trap game, with the Hawkeyes having an offense that leaves plenty to be desired and a defense that's ranked No. 6 by SP+. With Oregon looking a little iffy at home against Wisconsin two weeks ago, and Dante Moore exiting the game with a nose injury, the Ducks could be sluggish in this cross-country game at one of the toughest stadiums to play at in the Big Ten. Look for Iowa to muck this game up and lean on QB Mark Gronowski's rugged running style to make enough plays on offense to keep this close.

Kansas has struggled against competent teams, and it even no-showed in the Sunflower Showdown against Kansas State. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, Arizona is competent this season with Noah Fifita playing some of his best football and a top-tier pass defense. The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS.

Hugh Freeze may be gone, but that won't stop Diego Pavia from beating Auburn for a third straight season. Pavia has the Commodores 6-2-1 ATS this season, and the Tigers don't have the offense to keep up with Vandy.

Wake Forest is a live underdog who snapped SMU’s 20-game regular season conference winning streak, while dealing the Mustangs their first regular season loss since joining the ACC. The Demon Deacons also held SMU to 246 total yards, its fewest in a game under head coach Rhett Lashlee. 

The Fighting Irish have serious flaws despite pundits universally believing they are a College Football Playoff team if they run the table. Notre Dame had three different kickers miss kicks last week (two extra points and one field goal), and had nearly 11 fewer minutes of possession than a now 1-8 Boston College squad.

The way to beat LSU this year has been on the ground, as the interior of its defensive line is the weakest unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed, and is similar to Alabama’s secondary with both allowing just over three yards per attempt. 

LSU is one of three SEC teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Therefore, I expect a low volume passing day from Simpson, and for him to finish with 253 or fewer passing yards for the fourth straight conference game.

Alabama enters amid a 23-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games. But I am fading this trend and backing the one that says that over the last three years, underdogs led by interim coaches are covering at a 64% clip.

Williams has just three touchdowns this season, but he's caught at least five passes in every game, and he only has five fewer receptions than Germie Bernard, who leads Alabama in receptions (38) and touchdowns (8).

Simpson has only topped 270 yards three times this season, and LSU is allowing just 191.1 passing yards per game.

Berry has rushed for at least 55 yards in back-to-back games, averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry in both contests. Alabama is allowing 149.1 rushing yards per game.

Alabama should advance to 9-2 against the spread as a home favorite under DeBoer this week, as I don’t think Wilson and his chosen brain trust can get the job done with this roster.

Brian Kelly is gone, and renowned recruiter Frank Wilson is LSU's interim head coach, but Wilson can't fix the problems plaguing the Tigers' program. There are a million reasons why LSU is in rough shape heading into this matchup, and one of them is the distractions being caused by Gov. Jeff Landry. Meanwhile, Alabama is sitting pretty with Ty Simpson playing at a Heisman-level and the Tide's defense holding every SEC opponent it's faced to 24 points or fewer. These teams are trending in entirely different directions, and the Tide should roll the Tigers.

UCLA is 3-1 in its last four games, with its only loss in that span coming against an Indiana team that could be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

While the Bruins could have shown better than losing by 50 points, it was a bad matchup for them given how reliant they had been on explosive plays. UCLA combined for 29 explosive plays in wins over Maryland, Michigan State, and Penn State, but Indiana had held all opponents to 15 combined rushes of 10-plus yards.