Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who'll Win in College Football Week 8?
Saturday’s Tennessee vs. Alabama matchup is one of five ranked vs. ranked matchups of the weekend, and I break down this battle of SEC contenders with my Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction and picks. Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., is at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
Alabama is the 8-point betting favorite, which I am gladly laying with my college football picks considering Tennessee hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2003.
Adding to my college football predictions for Week 8 is a play on the Over (58.5) between these two high-scoring up-tempo teams.
🏈 Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction
College football picks for Week 8; odds subject to change.
- Game prediction: Alabama -8 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 58.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
👇️ See more SBR!
Want to make sure SBR shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed? Simply click here and add Sportsbook Review as one of your "source preferences".
🆚 Who will win Tennessee vs. Alabama?
Alabama enters amid a 22-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and it should extend that streak to 23 in this AP top-11 matchup.
✅ Best Tennessee vs. Alabama bet
🐘 Alabama -8 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is 14-2 SU in ranked matchups, including winning six of seven while with the Crimson Tide. And while Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is 2-2 against Alabama, both of those wins came at home, while his teams lost at Bryant-Denny Stadium by an average of 21 points in 2021 and 2023.
Alabama has covered the spread in six consecutive home games. It has also erased the sting of a season-opening loss to Florida State with three consecutive ranked victories, two of which were on the road at Georgia and Missouri.
That is more impressive than Tennessee’s No. 10 ranking in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 ranking in strength of record, especially when its last two wins have come by 10 combined points against Mississippi State and Arkansas teams that are a combined 6-6 on the season.
Ignore SP+ Metrics
If we were evaluating this game solely on SP+ metrics, Tennessee would have the edge. Compared to Alabama, the Volunteers rank higher in offensive SP+ (No. 3 vs. No. 16), special teams SP+ (No. 13 vs. No. 92), and overall SP+ (No. 11 vs. No. 13).
But perhaps the SP+ system is being unkind to Alabama, especially since it dropped seven spots overall after ending Missouri’s 15-game home winning streak. In that victory, the Crimson Tide held FBS-leading rusher Ahmad Hardy to just 52 yards and 4.3 yards per carry after he entered averaging 146 rush yards per game.
Instead of backing Alabama at a half-point higher at -8.5 and cheaper -105 juice (carrying a 51.22% implied probability), I am opting for the best number at Caesars. Through its -110 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.
⚖️ Tennessee vs. Alabama score prediction: Tennessee 24 - Alabama 38
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 58.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee has been playing with fire en route to a 5-1 record and top 11 AP ranking. The Volunteers have allowed at least 24 points in four of their wins, and 44 in their lone loss to Georgia. Those defensive issues are not likely to correct themselves against an Alabama team with Heisman Trophy contender Ty Simpson and his 16-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Tennessee has the balance offensively to keep up in the scoring department, as it averages 300-plus yards passing and 200-plus yards rushing per game. But it has also allowed an average of 43 points in its last two road games at Alabama, which has me confident that the Over will cash for the 10th time in the Volunteers’ last 11 games overall.
This total has skyrocketed from a lookahead number of 52.5. It has soared as high as 59.5 at our best sports betting sites, which means we are getting the best number and price at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would return $9.09 in profits.
📊 Tennessee vs. Alabama odds
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 18
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
