Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction & Odds: Early Picks for College Football Week 8
The Third Saturday in October is around the corner, so it’s time for me to dish out my Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction based on the opening odds as our college football picks series continues. The action is scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 18 at 7:30 p.m. (ABC) in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama is a 9.5-point betting favorite for this one after opening all the way out at 11.5. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 8, including our early picks, to ensure that you get the best line before sharp money swings the market.
🏈 Early Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 8.
🐘 Alabama -8 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Handicapping Saturday’s Tennessee vs. Alabama game is a bit tricky. On the one hand, Alabama nearly lost to Florida State while Tennessee nearly beat Georgia. On the other hand, Alabama has handled every SEC opponent capably since then, and Tennessee’s quality loss to Georgia looks increasingly suspect as the Bulldogs have underwhelmed every week. But as long as the Tide don’t return to their inefficient ways from Week 1, Alabama should win and cover.
Tennessee deserves plenty of credit for overcoming the shock departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but his replacement, Joey Aguilar, probably won’t deliver an upset on the Third Saturday of October. Aguilar ranks 19th in passing efficiency score (162.3), which trails Alabama’s Ty Simpson (172.4), who leads the conference in the metric. Worse, Aguilar has thrown five interceptions to Simpson’s one.
You just can’t turn the ball over and expect to cover against Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Vanderbilt learned that the hard way just a few weeks ago. For his career, Aguilar is a far worse quarterback on the road – his home passing efficiency score (170.7) and interception rate (1.8%) are far, far better than his road passing efficiency score (128.3) and total interception rate (3.7%).
I doubt we get under 7 for this one, so either hold and hope the public hammers Tennessee (and drops the number in the process) or commit to the current number of -8 for -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM and hope the market wisens up to Aguilar’s brutal home-away splits.
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📊 Tennessee vs. Alabama odds: Week 8
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📈 Tennessee vs. Alabama opening odds
- Moneyline: Tennessee +250 | Alabama -325
- Spread: Tennessee +11.5 (-110) | Alabama -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110)
💡 Tennessee vs. Alabama odds analysis
The spread for Saturday’s Tennessee vs. Alabama game opened at Alabama -11.5 this week, but that number has ticked down to between -8 and -9.5 – a pretty wide range – depending upon where you look. While this Tennessee team looks solid, I highly doubt the market will swing much further toward the Volunteers. It’s probably the right time to buy Alabama as I suspect the market could swing back to 9.5.
After opening at 59.5, the total sits squarely at that number as of Monday morning. That number could fluctuate depending on injury news from both sides. Tennessee and Alabama both have some notable injuries in their respective wide receiver rooms that could move the number up or down pending what news comes out. Still, I doubt we move below 57 or above 61.
📺️ How to watch Tennessee vs. Alabama
- When: Saturday, Oct. 18 @ 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
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