Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

Florida's offense will struggle against a defense allowing just 16.0 points per game. However, the Gators will score just enough for this Over to hit, as Texas should have no trouble finding the end zone against a defense allowing 37.5 points per game to SEC teams.

Florida is averaging just 2.57 yards per carry over the last two weeks, and now has to face the nation's 19th-ranked rush defense. Florida won't be able to slow down Arch Manning, as the defense is allowing 268.7 passing yards per game, which is the most in the SEC.

Texas entered last week having allowed touchdowns on an FBS-best three of opponents’ 11 red zone opportunities. I expect the Longhorns to make Florida’s offense one-dimensional, just like when Missouri held running back Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, the third-fewest in his career, in a dominant 45-17 victory.

Mississippi State has a rest advantage and faces an LSU defense ranked outside the top 30, while QB Kamario Taylor leads a 20th-ranked Bulldogs offense. 

Kamario Taylor became the first quarterback in Mississippi State history with three or more passing touchdowns in four straight games. But LSU should limit his passing efficiency with two of PFF’s top three players in terms of individual coverage grade in all of FBS. 

Turbo Richard is my top anytime touchdown scorer candidate for this Saturday's matchup against Ohio State. Richard has already recorded five touchdowns this season, proving he can contribute to his team's scoring attack. Against a tough Buckeyes defense, opportunities near the goal line could be especially valuable, and Richard has shown he can capitalize when chances come his way. 

Indiana figures to have a big advantage in the trenches in this matchup. Its offense has allowed a 19% pressure rate (11th in FBS), while its defense has recorded the third most sacks (20). Ohio State’s soft spot on the offensive line is at right tackle thanks to injuries, and Indiana’s dynamic 1-2 punch of edge rushers (Tobi Osunsamni and Stephen Daley) should continue to cause havoc while leading a unit that has recorded 49 tackles for loss (top three among FBS teams). 

Charlie Becker is a strong touchdown candidate this weekend against Ohio State, especially with eight receiving touchdowns on the season. The Indiana wide receiver has proven he can find the end zone consistently, and the Hoosiers will need his playmaking ability in a challenging matchup.

Ohio State boasts a strong run defense, which could force Indiana to rely more heavily on its passing attack to move the ball. That creates an opportunity for Becker to make an impact through the air. With his nose for the end zone, Becker is worth targeting to score.

Texas Tech is allowing just 16.2 points per game and just held Colorado to seven points. But the Texas Tech offense has struggled to exploit good matchups this season, topping 35 points just once this season.

The Sun Devils should find difficulty in keeping up with scoring against a Texas Tech team whose defense ranks in the top 10 in Defensive Finishing Drives and Quality Drives allowed. The Red Raiders should also be able to bleed clock late facing an Arizona State defense that ranks 120th in Stuff Rate. 

Auburn has failed to top 21 points in three of its four games against Power 4 teams. Georgia is allowing just 14 points per game, and I expect the Bulldogs' offense to start slowly after a dramatic win over Alabama last week.

Penn State faces its weakest offense during its losing stretch, as Michigan has logged less than 300 yards of offense in 3 of 5 contests. 

Missouri has held opponents to 2.4 YPC and 2 total rushing touchdowns in 2026. Also averaging 5.9 YPC against previous 2 SEC opponents and facing an Ole Miss defense ranked 109th. 

Deuce Alexander is a strong touchdown candidate this week after finding the end zone five times already this season. His ability to make plays and convert scoring opportunities gives him an appealing path to another touchdown in this matchup. With Alexander demonstrating a knack for getting into the end zone, he deserves consideration when evaluating this week's anytime touchdown scorer options.

As the offense looks to generate points, Alexander could play an important role near the goal line. Given his five touchdowns on the season, backing Alexander to score again this week is worth considering.

Trae'shawn Brown is an intriguing anytime touchdown scorer candidate for Alabama's matchup against Tennessee this Saturday. Brown has already found the end zone five times this season, showing he can make an impact when the Crimson Tide need points. Alabama will also be without star wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, creating an opportunity for other playmakers to step up and take on larger roles in the offense. With Williams unavailable, Brown could see additional opportunities to contribute in the passing game and become a more important target for quarterback Keelon Russell.

Keelon Russell is a strong candidate to score a rushing touchdown against Tennessee this weekend, especially with Alabama missing star wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams. Russell has already recorded four rushing touchdowns this season, showcasing his ability to make plays with his legs. Without Williams available in the passing game, Alabama may need Russell to take on a bigger role as a runner and create opportunities outside the pocket.

Against a tough Tennessee defense, Russell's mobility could become especially valuable. With his rushing production and increased responsibility, Russell has a legitimate chance to find the end zone on the ground.

Miami leads the nation in points and yards per game, and now faces a defense that has allowed at least 44 twice this year. Miami has only faced one top 100 scoring offense this season, allowing 20 points to Wake Forest.

Florida State ranks 114th in pass defense, allowing 244.7 yards per game. Mensah has topped 270 yards twice this season, and he should connect on plenty of long passes against a pass defense that has allowed 12 plays of 30+ yards.

Oklahoma State has covered in 6 straight games as an underdog. 

With Nico Iamaleava out, UCLA will turn to Ty Dieffenbach, who threw just nine touchdowns and nine interceptions with Cal Poly last season. Wisconsin's defense has been excellent against the pass and the run and has allowed the fewest plays of 20 or more yards this season.

Bruins running back Wayne Knight scored UCLA’s only two touchdowns against Oregon, with one rushing and receiving touchdown each. He entered the game with nine rushing touchdowns, tied for third-most among FBS players and the most by a Bruin through four games since 2004. Knight also was averaging 9.1 yards per rush entering the week (second in FBS, min. 45 rush attempts), and should create issues for a Badgers defense that ranks outside the top seven in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed per game.

While BYU is 17th in rush offense, Notre Dame leads the country in total defense (214.2 yards per game allowed) and run defense (58.3 yards per game allowed). If the Cougars are forced to be one-dimensional, that doesn’t bode well considering they’re 88th in passing and do not have a single pass catcher on the roster with 20 receptions or 400 receiving yards.

Utah's sixth-ranked scoring offense has scored at least 31 points in every game, topping 40 three times. Isaac Wilson will start at quarterback for Colorado after throwing three interceptions against Texas Tech, and he faces a defense with six picks this year.

Nebraska has a top-20 scoring offense and defense, while the Ducks are 58th in the nation on defense and playing with QB2. 

For as well as Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola played in relief of the injured Dante Moore against USC, he was awful last week. Raiola’s minus-1.20 EPA/Dropback was the worst single-game quarterback performance in that metric since 2024.