Tennessee vs. Alabama Week 8 College Football Picks: Any Chance For Vols Upset?

Alabama is the heavy favorite and has owned the recent matchup history. Is there any hope for a Tennessee upset?

No. 4 Alabama has utterly dominated SEC crossover opponent Tennessee over the past decade-and-a-half. Is there any reason that might change when they meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa? Not if the Tide are focused.

Tennessee probably can't wait for Oklahoma and Texas to join the SEC in a few years. Maybe that will mean the Vols won't have to play Alabama as their West Division crossover opponent every season once the league expands to 16 schools.

Alabama has won 14 straight against Tennessee and Tide coach Nick Saban is 16-1 in his career against UT, including a 14-0 mark at Bama. The road team has covered the spread in five of the past six.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 8 matchup between the Vols and Crimson Tide (Odds via DraftKings).

Tennessee vs. Alabama Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, 7 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds Analysis

The Tide opened as 27.5-point favorites but have dropped as low as 24.5 at some points, which is a bit surprising. It's not a lookahead situation as Alabama is off next week. Tennessee, though, is much improved this season under first-year coach Josh Heupel and gave No. 13 Ole Miss all it could handle last week. The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their past five as 'dogs.

The total generally opened at 68 - Tennessee plays super-fast under Heupel - and is as low as 66.5 at some books. The under is 8-2 in UT's past 10 as a road 'dog. It's 4-1 in Alabama's past five October games.

Tennessee vs. Alabama Betting Picks

Alabama -25Under 67.5 points

Tennessee vs. Alabama Betting Predictions

Alabama -25

The big question entering the game is the status of Vols starting quarterback Hendon Hooker, the transfer from Virginia Tech. Hooker began the year as the No. 2 behind Michigan transfer Joe Milton but essentially replaced Milton in the second game against Pittsburgh.

Hooker left in the final seconds of last Saturday’s 31-26 loss to Ole Miss. It's being called a leg injury and the passer is considered day-to-day. "I don't think it's a long-term injury (for Hooker)," Heupel said. "As for his status for this week, we'll find out as we go."

Needless to say, downgrade the Vols if Hooker can't play. He is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,296 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just one pick. Hooker's rating of 179.9 is No. 5 nationally. Milton replaced the injured Hooker for the final four plays against the Rebels. He is completing just 46.7 percent of his passes this year for 255 yards, one TD, and zero picks for a rating of 101.6. Running back Tiyon Evans and offensive lineman Cade Mays are also banged up and day-to-day.

Tennessee is in the midst of playing four straight opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 15. UT is just 2-8 ATS in its past 10 versus teams with a winning record. The Tide are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 at home.

The line has gone up to -25. Perhaps wait or shop around for -23.5.

Under 67 Points

Tennessee is tied with Ole Miss for the national lead in plays per minute at 2.90, but the Vols also held the Rebels to 15 points below their season average and seven points in the second half, the lowest second-half point total in the Lane Kiffin era.

Alabama won easily at Mississippi State 49-9 last Saturday. It was the 95th time the Crimson Tide have held an opponent under 10 points during Saban's tenure. Yes, he's a defensive guy.

Offensively, passer Bryce Young remains neck-and-neck atop the Heisman Trophy odds with Ole Miss QB Matt Corral.

Alabama has scored 30-or-more points in 33 straight games, the longest streak in FBS history. I don't expect the Vols to keep Bama under 30, either, but don't think UT will get above 20.

It's homecoming in Tuscaloosa and the Tide haven't lost on homecoming (no game last year) since a 35-21 defeat to LSU on Nov. 3, 2001. In all October home games, Saban is 28-0. Rather amazingly, Bama has won 32 straight games against SEC Eastern Division opponents. That streak dates to 2010.

The under is 9-4 in Tennessee's past 13 road games. The under has hit in the past two in this series. I project a final around 45-18.

Alabama -25(-110)

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