TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: College Football Week 1 Best Bets

Can Bill Belichick pick up a win in his college football head coaching debut?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 1, 2025 2:11 PM EDT • 6 minute read

TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: College Football Week 1 Best Bets — Pictured: North Carolina Tar Heels running back Davion Gause (21) reacts after scoring a touchdown at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Photo by Bob Donnan via Imagn Images.

The Bill Belichick era for the Tar Heels begins as I offer my TCU vs. North Carolina prediction as part of our Week 1 college football predictions and picks.

TCU is poised to spoil his debut, with the Horned Frogs a 3.5-point road betting favorite at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C. (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). I also see value in backing TCU returning quarterback Josh Hoover in my college football picks.

🏈 TCU vs. North Carolina expert picks & predictions tonight

College football odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: TCU (-160 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Against the spread pick: TCU -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Under 56.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 TCU vs. North Carolina preview & best bet tonight

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐸 TCU -3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Only the second head coach to win a Super Bowl and then coach at the college level, nobody can doubt Belichick’s resume. But his influence on a roster that features 70 new players will take more time, which makes me wonder why the Horned Frogs are such a short betting favorite.

TCU is a bona fide Big 12 contender after winning six of its final seven games last season. It has the edge at quarterback, with Hoover returning after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns.

For UNC, signal caller Gio Lopez’s biggest strength is his legs, but his ability might be offset by a rebuilt offensive line that will need time to gel.

There is no value to be had with line shopping for this point spread, as the best sports betting sites are aligned with the number of -3.5 at the standard -110 juice. Those odds carry a 52.38% implied probability and would net $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

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💰 Best TCU vs. North Carolina player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Josh Hoover longest pass completion Over 42.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Hoover should have the TCU offense humming early with his top receiver, Eric McAlister, back, he also has big-play threat and Idaho transfer, Jordan Dwyer, at his disposal. He topped 1,000 yards last season and added 12 touchdowns.

I expect the Horned Frogs to take deep shots early and often with their vertical passing game against a Tar Heels defense that ranked outside the top 45 in passing defense success rate last season.

Hoover had at least one 40-yard completion in 10 of 13 games last year and a long of 46-plus yards in each of the first five to start the season.

That makes the 53.49% implied probability to cash this wager at bet365 a steal, and it is one of the only best sports betting apps offering this unique prop. A $10 winning wager would return $8.70 in profits.

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👀 TCU vs. North Carolina betting report

Here's how the betting action is coming in on TCU vs. North Carolina at BetMGM as of Monday afternoon:

Market	Opening Line	Current Line	% Bets
Spread	TCU -2.5 / UNC +2.5	TCU -3.5 / UNC +3.5	61% / 39%
Total (O/U)	59.5	54.5	O 43% / U 57%
Moneyline (ML)	TCU -130 / UNC +110	TCU -179 / UNC +150	53% / 47%

📊 TCU vs. North Carolina odds: Week 1

College football odds update live in real time.

📈 TCU vs. North Carolina betting odds analysis

The spread has increased from an opening number of -1.5, surpassing the key number of three to sit at TCU -3.5 ahead of kickoff. Even with the bump over the key number, we're still seeing 56% of the wagers coming in on the visitors as of Monday morning.

The total has also seen some movement after opening at 58.5. As of Monday morning, the O/U is trading at 55.5 or 55 depending on what sportsbook you're using, with 52% of the wagers coming in on the Under.

🔢 TCU vs. North Carolina stats

Season stats courtesy of sports-reference.com. The below stats are from the 2024 season.

TCU (9-4)	Statistic (per game)	North Carolina (6-7)
33.5	Points	30.9
24.6	Points allowed	28.1
0.5	Turnover margin	0.5
312.9	Passing yards	224.4
113.9	Rushing yards	182.3
185.2	Passing yards allowed	226.3
160.5	Rushing yards allowed	149.5
1.2	Net yards per play	1.1

🚑 TCU vs. North Carolina injuries

📺 TCU vs. North Carolina game info

When: Monday, Sept. 1
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
Where: Kenan Stadium (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
How to watch: ESPN

💡 More TCU vs. North Carolina expert picks

TCU vs. North Carolina prediction
TCU vs. North Carolina player props
TCU vs. North Carolina parlay picks
TCU vs. North Carolina touchdown scorer predictions

❓ TCU vs. North Carolina FAQs

Who is favored to win TCU vs. North Carolina?

TCU is a -165 moneyline favorite against North Carolina.

What is the spread for TCU vs. North Carolina?

TCU is the 3.5-point betting favorite across our top sports betting sites.

What is the Over/Under for TCU vs. North Carolina?

The O/U ranges between 56 and 56.5 points, down from the opening number of 58.5.

What are the best bets for TCU vs. North Carolina?

My TCU vs. North Carolina best bets expect the Horned Frogs to win and cover, with quarterback Josh Hoover going over his longest pass completion prop.

When is the TCU vs. North Carolina game?

The TCU vs. North Carolina matchup is a standalone game on Monday night at 8 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”