TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Can Horned Frogs Maintain Hot Start?
Week 5 of the college football season is here, and we’re here to make our TCU vs. Arizona State prediction for this crucial Big 12 matchup as our college football picks series continues. The action is scheduled for Friday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. ET (FOX) at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, Ariz.
Arizona State is a 3.5-point betting favorite for this matchup. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 5 so that you don’t miss out on any other winning plays, including the below player prop for running back Raleek Brown.
🏈 TCU vs. Arizona State prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: TCU (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: TCU +3 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
📝 TCU vs. Arizona State best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐸 TCU moneyline (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Back TCU to cover and win. The Frogs are the better team, but with them getting a field goal, the market believes this is a pick’em on a neutral site. I disagree, and so do the analytics. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) makes this a pick’em at Arizona State’s home field – and that model gives the Sun Devils credit for much of last year’s run, which relied on departed star running back Cam Skattebo.
It’s impossible to overstate how much worse Arizona State looks without Skattebo. Last year, the Sun Devils ended the season ranked 33rd in yards per play (6.1). This year, they rank a dreadful 85th (5.2) through four games. Skattebo’s contributions as a rusher and receiver haven’t been replicated – no one has come close to filling in for the 178.1 scrimmage yards he averaged per game.
Meanwhile, TCU looks just as good as last year – if not better. Last year’s offense, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, ranked 25th in yards per play (6.1). This year, the team ranks 11th (7.0) through three games, which included statement wins over Bill Belichick’s UNC and crosstown rival SMU. Spread your exposure at Caesars across TCU +3 at -110 (52.4%) and TCU moneyline at +130 (43.5%). A successful $10 bet on the moneyline will profit $13.
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💰 Best TCU vs. Arizona State player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Raleek Brown Under 57.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has rotated his running backs heavily. Raleek Brown leads the team in rushing yards (372) and attempts (56), but he wasn’t a huge piece of the offense in the opener. He has to share the backfield with Kanye Udoh, who ranks second among running backs in rushing yards (156) and attempts (39), and Kyson Brown, who ranks third in yards (93) and attempts (11) after suffering an injury versus Mississippi State.
Dillingham appears willing to ride the hot hand. That could be good news for Raleek Brown’s volume, but against a TCU defense that ranks 17th in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.6), it could also lead to Udoh or Kyson Brown rotating in earlier than usual. Raleek Brown’s 75-yard scamper against Texas State balloons his yards per rush attempt to 6.6, but he is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt against Power Four teams.
It also helps that Raleek Brown is coming off a 21-carry performance at Baylor on Saturday. With so much work and a shorter week to prepare – and Kyson Brown apparently feeling better – Dillingham could also opt to rotate more heavily just to keep his backs fresh. Fade Raleek Brown by buying him to stay Under 57.5 rushing yards for -115 (53.5%) at BetMGM to score an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.
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📊 TCU vs. Arizona State odds: Week 5
TCU vs. Arizona State odds update live in real time.
📈 TCU vs. Arizona State opening odds
- Moneyline: TCU +114 | Arizona State -137
- Spread: TCU +1.5 (-110) | Arizona State -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-112)
🔍 TCU vs. Arizona State odds analysis
After opening as a short favorite, Arizona State has been bid up to a full field-goal favorite at most books. I disagree with that line movement and suspect we’ll come back down to the opening number as kickoff approaches, especially if bad injury news for the Sun Devils continues to trickle out of Tempe as it already has for several of their key pieces in the secondary.
The total for Friday’s game opened at 55.5, which is where you’ll find it at a few of the best sports betting sites, but others have already cut it down to 54.5. I expect a Big 12 shootout in this spot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the number ticks up slightly, largely for the same reason as I expect the number to move toward TCU: injuries to Arizona State’s secondary.
🔢 TCU vs. Arizona State key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| TCU (3-0) | Statistic (per game) | Arizona State (3-1) |
|---|---|---|
| 41.7 | Points | 29.8 |
| 19.7 | Points allowed | 20.5 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +3 |
| 341.3 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 174.7 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 246 | Passing yards allowed | 238.8 |
| 107 | Rushing yards allowed | 95.3 |
| 7 | Net yards per play | 5.2 |
📺 TCU vs. Arizona State game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Ariz.)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ TCU vs. Arizona State FAQs
Who is favored to win TCU vs. Arizona State?
Arizona State is the favorite to win Friday’s TCU vs. Arizona State game with moneyline odds of -150 (60%) at BetMGM.
What is the spread for TCU vs. Arizona State?
The spread for TCU vs. Arizona State is Sun Devils -3 after opening at Arizona State -1.5
What is the Over/Under for TCU vs. Arizona State?
The Over/Under for TCU vs. Arizona State is 55.5 or 54.5, depending on your book, after opening at the former number.
What are the best bets for TCU vs. Arizona State?
The best bets for Friday’s TCU vs. Arizona State game are TCU moneyline and Arizona State running back Raleek Brown to stay Under 57.5 rushing yards.
When is the TCU vs. Arizona State game?
The TCU vs. Arizona State game is scheduled for Friday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. ET (FOX).
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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