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Head coach Willie Fritz of the Tulane Green Wave looks on as we share our best SMU vs. Tulane prediction.
Head coach Willie Fritz of the Tulane Green Wave looks on during a game against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via AFP.

The American Athletic Conference Championship Game pits the SMU Mustangs against the Tulane Green Wave, as we make our best SMU vs. Tulane prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

The SMU Mustangs enter Saturday's AAC title game, having won eight straight games, and eight of their 10 wins this season have come by at least 18 points. However, starting quarterback Preston Stone, who suffered a broken leg in the regular-season finale, will be unavailable.  

The Tulane Green Wave also enter on a winning streak, coming out on top in 10 straight games. However, their games have been much closer than the Mustangs. Their average margin of victory during this streak is 11.2, with four wins decided by seven or fewer points.

To accompany our College Football Best Bets and Week 14 Player Props, here is our best SMU vs. Tulane prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SMU vs. Tulane prediction: AAC Championship

Under 47 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Green Wave boast the 19th-best defense in college football, but they are tied for 81st in passing yards allowed per game. That could be problematic against the 19th-best passing offense in the country.

However, the weather is supposed to play a huge role in Saturday’s game, as there is a 94% chance of rain during the game. This will prevent the Mustangs from taking full advantage of this matchup, especially since they will be playing with a backup QB on the big stage.

The Mustangs are very good defensively as well, ranking 18th in the country, and allowing just 19.3 points per game. They have given up more than 30 points in two of their last four games, but the Green Wave haven’t scored 30 in a game since Oct. 28.

Still, the Green Wave have the 60th-highest-scoring offense in the country, so there is a chance they could score 30 or more in this game. But on a wet playing surface, the best way for the Green Wave to move the football will be on the ground. While they’re averaging nearly 170 rushing yards per game, the Mustangs have the 27th-best run defense in all of college football. 

Most of the statistical analysis points toward the Mustangs covering the spread and possibly even pulling the upset. But with their sixth-ranked scoring offense grounded because of weather, they may struggle to pull away from a Green Wave offense that has struggled in recent weeks. Expect both these teams to score in the low 20s or lower.

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SMU vs. Tulane best odds

bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Under 47Under 47.5Under 46.5Under 47Under 47
-112-115-105-110-110

FanDuel is offering the highest number of any of our best sports betting apps. However, because they’re asking -115 for the Under, we recommend playing Under 47 for -110 at either bet365 or Caesars.

Early wagering at our best college football betting sites suggests that the public loves the Over in this game. Oddsmakers have been reluctant to raise the number despite overwhelming support from the public, which signals that they’re on the side of the Under. However, because of the public’s support, you can likely wait until closer to kickoff to get in on this Under, as oddsmakers should eventually raise the total back to at least 47.5.

SMU vs. Tulane odds

SMU vs. Tulane odds analysis

The Green Wave opened as 6-point favorites, but the spread has dropped to 3.5 at our best sports betting sites. At this time, 57% of wagers are backing the Mustangs to cover. The key number of three is definitely in play, but it would be surprising to see this number drop to 2.5.

The total for this game opened at 47.5, and it has either stayed there or dropped at each of the best sportsbooks. BetMGM has lowered the total to 46.5, despite 78% of wagers backing the Over. There is a chance that oddsmakers at our best college football betting sites move toward the public closer to kickoff, and this number hits 48.

SMU vs. Tulane game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 4 p.m. ET
  • Where: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 76 degrees, 8-mph winds, 94% chance of precipitation

SMU vs. Tulane prediction made 11/30/2023 at 2:12 p.m. ET.

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