SEC Best Bets for Week 10: SEC Predictions, ATS Picks & Player Props
Our SEC best bets take a look at the most high-profile conference in the land as CFP implications exist across a number of the matchups for Saturday’s slate.
Among our college football Week 10 predictions, we like Mississippi State as a road underdog after Blake Shapen’s recent impressive passing performances. Plus, a key matchup of playoff hopefuls could turn into a defensive slugfest in Austin.
🏈 SEC best bets & expert picks: Week 10
See all of our experts' college football picks this week based on the latest college football odds for Week 10
- Mississippi State +5.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Auburn -10.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Vanderbilt-Texas Under 47 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Blake Shapen Over 262.5 passing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- John Mateer Over 241.5 passing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nate Frazier Over 52.5 rushing yards (-114 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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🔮 Best SEC predictions: ATS, ML, O/U
🐶 Mississippi State +5.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line opened at Arkansas -3.5 and has pushed up to -5.5 at DraftKings (-115 odds) as of Friday afternoon. That line movement has me even more interested in betting on the Bulldogs. Mississippi State should be able to put up points on one of the worst defenses in the country.
Arkansas ranks 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency per ESPN's Football Power Index. The Hogs have allowed 36.4 PPG (123rd in FBS) and are facing a Mississippi State team that is an impressive 7-1 against the spread.
The implied probability of Mississippi State +5.5 at -115 odds is 53.49% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.
🐯 Auburn -10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's going off the rails for Mark Stoops at Kentucky and the bookmakers understand that Auburn is better than its record indicates.
The Tigers have four conference losses, but all came against ranked opponents. Auburn just beat Arkansas by nine on the road. Kentucky has averaged just 19.4 PPG in SEC play, and Auburn ranks 8th in FBS adjusted defensive efficiency.
The implied probability of Auburn -10.5 with -110 odds at DraftKings is 52.38% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09.
⬇️ Vanderbilt-Texas Under 47 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After Missouri displayed how to limit Diego Pavia in the Auburn Tigers' 17-10 loss in Nashville last weekend, I look for Texas' 6th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in FBS to do the same.
The Longhorns have also had their share of offensive struggles, and the Commodores rank near the top of the nation in pressure rate without blitzing, which could limit Arch Manning's comfort here. These two teams combine to allow an average of 35.6 PPG to their FBS opponents.
The implied probability of Under 47 with -110 odds at Caesars is 52.38% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09.
💡 More college football predictions for Week 10
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for every game this week.
💰 Best SEC player prop bets for Week 10
⬆️ Blake Shapen Over 262.5 passing yards (ODDS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although there’s risk of Mississippi State pounding the rock against Arkansas’ woeful run defense, the Razorbacks also struggle through the air, allowing 252.9 passing yards per game (103rd in FBS).
Blake Shapen has been dialed in recently, logging passing yardage totals of 381 and 324 over his past two SEC games. With Mississippi State featured as an underdog, Shapen may need heavy volume to keep up with Arkansas’ scoring pace.
The implied probability of Shapen Over 262.5 passing yards with -115 odds at Caesars is 53.49% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.
⬆️ John Mateer Over 241.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
John Mateer has been disappointing as a passer following his return from hand surgery. The Oklahoma QB has averaged just 191.6 passing yards per game over his last three contests.
But the perfect antidote is this miserable Tennessee pass defense, which allows 281.1 passing yards per game to rank 129th out of 136 FBS teams.
The implied probability of Mateer Over 241.5 passing yards with -115 odds at Caesars is 53.49% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.
⬆️ Nate Frazier Over 52.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After Mississippi State running back Davon Booth pounded out 105 rushing yards in Florida’s most recent contest, I’m looking for Georgia RB Nate Frazier to find holes against the Gator run defense.
While Frazier’s production has been somewhat inconsistent this year, he’s coming off a season-high workload with 17 carries (72 yards) in Georgia’s win over Ole Miss.
The implied probability of Frazier Over 52.5 rushing yards with -114 odds at Caesars is 53.27% and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.77.
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