Rice vs. Texas State Predictions & Odds | 2026 Armed Forces Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
With one program losing its starting quarterback to the transfer portal, my Rice vs. Texas State predictions favor the more explosive offense to win the Armed Forces Bowl decisively.
Texas State is a 15.5-point betting favorite for Friday's 1 p.m. ET (ESPN) Armed Forces Bowl from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, in one of the final matchups of our college bowl game predictions.
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🏈 Rice vs. Texas State predictions: 2026 Armed Forces Bowl
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| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State -15.5 | -115 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Brad Jackson 2+ TDs | +250 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Rice vs. Texas State best bet
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Texas State -15.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Neither of these teams plays defense well, but Texas State is in far better shape because its offense is intact. Rice is without starting QB Chase Jenkins and backup Drew Devillier, plus two of its top playmakers, Drayden Dickman and Daelen Alexander.
The Bobcats are dealing with far fewer transfer portal losses and have one of the best offenses in the Group of Five, averaging 36.1 PPG behind QB Brad Jackson, running back Lincoln Pare, and receiver Beau Sparks.
Rice's defense is among the worst in the country, ranked No. 106 by SP+ and allowing 32.2 PPG.
Score prediction: Texas State 38, Rice 20
🙌 Best Rice vs. Texas State touchdown pick: Armed Forces Bowl
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Brad Jackson, QB, Texas State: 2+ TDs (+250) ⭐⭐⭐
Jackson is among the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, ranking top 25 in rushing yards after contact (408) and 10-plus-yard runs (25) among QBs.
He leads the Bobcats with 16 touchdowns this season, second-most in the country by a QB, and is poised to burn a Rice defense that's allowed 24 rushing TDs in 12 games.
With Jackson having run for multiple touchdowns in five games this season, including three straight, I'm shocked how long these odds are with him taking on a bad Owls defense.
😼 Pair Jackson with Pare
The Bobcats' duo of Jackson and Pare is among the best in the country. Pare is second on the team in TDs (13), behind Jackson, and has been one of the most versatile running backs in the G6 this season, leading Texas State in touches (235) and scrimmage yards (1,328).
Having scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine games, I love parlaying both Pare and Jackson to score once, with +104 odds at bet365.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Armed Forces Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Anyanwu, Rice | EDGE | Round 6-UDFA | |
| Kalil Alexander, Texas State | EDGE | Round 6-UDFA | |
| Lincoln Pare, Texas State | RB | UDFA | |
| Aaron Turner, Rice | WR | UDFA |
📊 Live Rice vs. Texas State odds: Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs. Texas State opening odds
- Moneyline: Rice +350 | Texas State -450
- Spread: Rice +11.5 (-110) | Texas State -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110)
📈 Rice vs. Texas State betting trends
| Rice | Statistic | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L record | 6-6 |
| 5-7 | ATS record | 4-8 |
| 7-5 | O/U record | 7-5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per play | 6.7 |
| 6.3 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7 |
| -0.2 | Turnover margin | -0.5 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 52-3 vs. South Florida | Previous result | W, 49-26 vs. South Alabama |
📺 How to watch Rice vs. Texas State: Armed Forces Bowl
- Date: Friday, Jan. 2
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
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