Rice vs. Texas Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Can Longhorns Avoid Looking Ahead?
An in-state college football rivalry is on tap for Saturday as the Texas Longhorns host the Rice Owls. Read on for our Rice vs. Texas prediction based on the best college football odds.
Rice finished the year with a record of 5-8, including a 3-5 AAC record, and a four-game losing streak. Despite being a five victory team, the Owls only received an extraordinary exemption from bowl eligibility due to their 38-24 drubbing by Southern Miss in the LendingTree Bowl. It will be the second consecutive season that Rice started its season in a road game against an Associated Press top 25 team, as it was beaten by then 14th ranked USC on opening weekend last year, 66-14.
There is a lot of buzz around Texas to break through and reach its first College Football Playoff this season in year three under head coach Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns improved from 5-7 to 8-5 in Sarkisian's first two years and won eight-plus games for the first time since 2019. The Longhorns are looking to end their longest conference title drought in school history, last claiming the Big 12 in 2009.
Here is our best Rice vs. Texas prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rice vs. Texas prediction: Week 1
Rice +35.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Two significant factors are working against Texas to cover as a five-touchdown favorite when looking to make your college football Week 1 predictions. One is that there is a lookahead factor to UT’s all-important showdown with Alabama in Tuscaloosa next week, the only game on its schedule it is not projected as a touchdown or higher favorite. The other is quarterback Quinn Ewers's drop-off at the end of last season, suggesting he comes into this year with little momentum.
Ewers is 6-4 overall as a starter. In his first four starts, Ewers had a total QBR of 88 (sixth-best in FBS over that span), a 9-2 TD-INT ratio, a 68% completion percentage, and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. Over his final six starts, Ewers' QBR dropped to 52 while posting a 6-4 TD-INT ratio, completing 54% of his passes and averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
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The good news for Ewers is that Texas returns 85% of its offensive production, the second-most in the Big 12 and third-most in FBS. However, the Longhorns defense will also be a work in progress early, returning 63% of their defensive production from a team that ranked second in scoring defense in the conference (21.6 points per game allowed, its best scoring defense since 2017).
However, Rice will challenge that defense with JT Daniels at quarterback. Daniels, who spent time at both USC and Georgia, should help remedy an offense that committed 32 turnovers, the most among FBS schools, while Texas finished outside the top 100 in turnovers forced.
Even if the Longhorns have success early offensively with the return of wide receiver Xavier Worthy, tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, and offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., three of the top 10 players at their positions, per Pro Football Focus, the weather should dictate them calling off the dogs. We expect Sarkisian to be cautious with his players late, given it is expected to be over 100 degrees throughout most of the game, with an emphasis on not wearing them out physically with Alabama on tap next week.
Back Rice against the spread with your college football best bets for Saturday.
Rice vs. Texas best odds
BetMGM (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +35 | +35.5 | +35.5 | +35 | +35 |
| -110 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Our best sports betting apps are split between a spread of +35 and +35.5, so those looking to back the underdog must seriously consider the extra half-point worth of value at BetMGM and FanDuel.
BetMGM is our clear choice as our go-to shop since we are not only getting Rice at higher than the key number of +35, but it charges standard juice to do so, unlike FanDuel, which is at -115 while getting 35 points and the hook.
Rice vs. Texas odds
Rice vs. Texas odds analysis
Texas could have been had at -34.5 at our best sports betting sites in mid-July, but the move from -35 to -35.5 at BetMGM and FanDuel only happened earlier this week, as bettors are seemingly weighing in with more abundance closer to kickoff. Wagers are 2/1 in favor of the Longhorns, making it possible that other sportsbooks will move to -35.5 or higher if the betting splits are more egregious closer to kickoff.
There is a slightly wider gap in the total among the major sportsbooks, as BetMGM and BetRivers are as low as 58.5, while FanDuel is the only shop offering an O/U of 59.5 (juiced to the Under at -115). However, BetMGM and BetRivers had reached the same 59.5-point pinnacle on Monday morning before lowering a whole point. FanDuel has remained at 59.5 since its initial opening.
Rice vs. Texas game info
- When: Saturday, September 2, 2023, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 102 degrees, 13% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SE
Rice-Texas bet made on 08/31/2023 at 6:40 a.m. ET
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