Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7

My best Pittsburgh vs. Florida State prediction highlights why Saturday’s noon ET (ESPN) game at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla., will be closer than oddsmakers expect. Florida State is currently favored by 10.5 points, despite losing back-to-back games.

Below, my best college football picks explain why Gavin Sawchuk and the Florida State rushing attack will struggle against Pittsburgh’s excellent run defense, as the Panthers nearly pull the upset. For more about this game and others, check out our college football predictions for Week 7.

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🏈 Pittsburgh vs. Florida State prediction

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Pittsburgh +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 58 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Gavin Sawchuk Under 57.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Pittsburgh vs. Florida State?

Florida State only lost by six last week, but the Seminoles trailed 28-3 entering the fourth quarter. Since their Week 1 win over Alabama, they’re 0-2 against power conference teams. Florida State is on upset alert, but ultimately, I expect the Noles to pull out a tight victory.

Florida State is 3-1 at Doak Campbell Stadium this season and is facing a Pittsburgh team that lost its only road contest to West Virginia, a team that lost to Ohio and has two 30-point losses on its resume. Pittsburgh matches up well with Florida State, especially when it comes to stopping the run, but home-field advantage will be the difference in this game.

Pittsburgh vs. Florida State score prediction: Florida State 30 - Pittsburgh 27

✅ Pittsburgh vs. Florida State best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐾 Pittsburgh +10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh is allowing just 64.6 rushing yards per game. The defense will be tested this week against a rushing attack averaging 295.4 yards per game, but this is a unit that has been excellent against four of the five running games they’ve faced.

Florida State’s biggest strength is also its run defense, as the Seminoles are giving up just 108.6 rushing yards per game. They held Miami to just 97 rushing yards, but they allowed 241 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Freshman Mason Heintschel will make his second start for Pittsburgh after throwing for 323 yards and four touchdowns against Boston College. Heintschel and the Panthers’ pass-first offense, averaging 307 yards per game, will keep this close against a spiraling Florida State team.

The price of -110 at BetMGM suggests a 52.38% chance Pittsburgh covers. A $10 bet would pay $9.09.

💰 Best Pittsburgh vs. Florida State player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Gavin Sawchuk Under 57.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sawchuk leads Florida State with 281 rushing yards, though he actually has four fewer carries than quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Sharing carries with his quarterback has led Sawchuk to just two games with more than 50 rushing yards. He ran for 74 in a double-overtime loss, where he set a season-high with 17 carries, and he ran for 97 yards in a blowout win over lowly Kent State.

While Sawchuk is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, he’s only run more than 11 times once all season. Considering Pittsburgh is allowing just 1.7 yards per carry, Sawchuk will need a lot more than 11 touches to hit this Over on Saturday.

The price of -114 at FanDuel implies a 53.27% chance he hits this Under. A $10 bet would pay $8.70.

📊 Pittsburgh vs. Florida State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Pittsburgh vs. Florida State: Week 7

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN