Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction: Odds & Expert Picks for College Football Week 5

There may not be a better atmosphere in college football than a “white out” in Happy Valley, and that home-field advantage has me backing the Nittany Lions with my Oregon vs. Penn State prediction as part of our college football predictions for Week 5.

Penn State is a 3.5-point betting favorite with kickoff from Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.) set for tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Along with the Nittany Lions’ point spread as the first of my college football picks, I have targeted running back Kaytron Allen’s rushing yards as my best player prop pick for this AP top-six clash.

📊 Oregon vs. Penn State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Oregon vs. Penn State predictions

College football expert picks for Week 5; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Penn State -3 (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Oregon vs. Penn State expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦁 Penn State -3 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Those who doubt Penn State in this matchup are likely doing so because head coach James Franklin is 2-20 SU in games against opponents ranked in the top six in the AP poll. But since taking over as Nittany Lions head coach, Franklin is 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS as a favorite of at least two points in prime-time games - and he's 14-2 ATS overall in night games in his Penn State tenure.

The intimidating “white out” atmosphere is not the only reason for this Oregon vs. Penn State best bet. The Nittany Lions defense ranks second among FBS teams in finishing drives and ranks in the top 10 in defensive line yards and Havoc rate.

The switch in defensive coordinators at Penn State from Tom Allen to Jim Knowles, who was Ohio State’s defensive coordinator during last year’s national championship run, has gone off without a hitch. Knowles has been aggressively deploying two of the best cover cornerbacks in the country in Jahmir Joseph and Daryus Dixson.

That duo should help stifle an Oregon passing game that usually has huge advantages on the perimeter against weaker competition.

It is absolutely worth paying up slightly for Caesars’ -120 odds (carrying a 54.55% implied probability), as it is the only sportsbook offering a line on the key number of 3 as opposed to 3.5. That half-point is worth the extra price, as a $10 winning wager for a Penn State cover would still net $8.33 in profits.

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💰 Oregon vs. Penn State player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State: Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's hard to decide which Penn State running back will have the breakout game between the elite duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. But both are often heavily involved in the weekly game plan, and I am siding with Allen to have the better game this week as my best Oregon vs. Penn State player prop pick.

Allen has been a bulldozer, averaging over five yards per carry after contact. Yet he is also one of the most elusive backs in the country, making 14 different tacklers miss on his rushing attempts this season.

Penn State owns a huge advantage over Oregon in the trenches when it comes to zone read running plays. The Ducks defense has had a 43% success rate on such plays, while the Nittany Lions have a 66% success rate through three games.

Given that Oregon has been exposed on such plays by much weaker competition, Allen could come close to exceeding this projected total on one long run.

FanDuel offers the best number and price for this player prop, as Allen’s O/U is as high as 70.5 (at 54.75% implied odds through a -121 price). A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -114 odds would net $8.77 in profits.

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