Oregon vs. Penn State Player Prop Picks: Back Allen to Find the End Zone

There may not be a better atmosphere in a college venue all season than this week’s “white out” at Beaver Stadium, with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday night (NBC/Peacock). I break down this massive AP top-6 matchup with my Oregon vs. Penn State player prop picks. 

Penn State is one of the popular college football picks I'm backing this week, and I also doubled down on one of my college football predictions for Week 5 while locking in Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen to score a touchdown.

🏈 Best Oregon vs. Penn State player prop picks: Week 5

College football player prop bets odds subject to change.

• Kaytron Allen anytime TD scorer (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Dakorien Moore Over 48.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Drew Allar Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Oregon vs. Penn State prop bets

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State: Anytime touchdown scorer (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Fellow Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton is getting steeper -145 anytime touchdown odds (carrying a 59.18% implied probability) based on his five rushing touchdowns to Allen’s three. But Allen has logged 94 more rushing yards this season, and his elite 8.0 yards-per-carry average makes him a threat to find the end zone every time he touches the ball.

Penn State owns a huge advantage over Oregon in the trenches when it comes to zone-read running plays. The Ducks' defense is posting a 43% success rate on such plays, while the Nittany Lions have put up a 66% success rate through three games. Even if Allen isn't the team’s feature goal-line back, I expect him to break loose on several such runs.

If Allen scores a touchdown for the fourth straight game, my $10 five-star Oregon vs. Penn State prop bet through BetMGM’s -120 odds (prices are as high as -150 elsewhere) would net $8.33 in profit.

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⬆️ Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon: Over 48.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In Ohio State’s 41-21 rout of Oregon in the College Football Playoff last year, the Buckeyes held the Ducks to minus-23 yards rushing on 28 carries, while Oregon threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. I bring that up because the Buckeyes' former defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is now in the same role at Penn State, and he knows Will Stein’s system well.

I expect Penn State’s run defense that's allowed just over 100 yards per game this year to load the box and dare Ducks quarterback Dante Moore to beat the unit through the air. Freshman Dakorien Moore is the team’s leading receiver with 207 yards. He's gone over this projected total in each of the last three games despite averaging three receptions in that span.

Moore should receive plenty more targets in this game compared to the four blowouts the team has played to this point. There's value at this number, considering DraftKings charges a steeper price (-119, 54.34% implied probability) to back Moore to finish with 50-plus receiving yards. A $10 winning wager would return $8.06 in profits through FanDuel’s -114 odds.

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⬇️ Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

Penn State head coach James Franklin tends to not ask much of his quarterback in the most significant games. Allar finished with zero passing touchdowns four times across six outings against ranked opponents last year, including CFP contests. He also attempted 25 or fewer passes in each of those games when the signal-caller didn't register a touchdown pass. 

Oregon was one of the ranked teams he beat this projected total against when Allar completed 20-of-39 passes for three touchdowns and two interceptions. But that game turned into a track meet, with the Ducks racing out to a 28-10 second-quarter lead. 

I expect Penn State to play with a lead more often than not in this game, which means the team won’t abandon its top-tier two-headed monster at running back as much as it was forced to during the Big Ten Championship.

The -125 odds at BetMGM offer a much better return than the -136 price at FanDuel and Caesars, which carry a 57.63% implied probability. If Allar were to finish with one or fewer passing touchdowns, a $10 winning wager would net an $8 profit.

📊 Oregon vs. Penn State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.