Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7
There's plenty of QB drama on both sides of this year's Red River Rivalry, and my Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction and college football picks are projecting a defensive slugfest at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
With Sooners QB John Mateer now being listed as probable (thumb), Oklahoma is a 1-point betting favorite against Arch Manning and Texas. And while our college football predictions for Week 7 expect a low-scoring game between these two, I'm backing the Sooners to win outright in the end.
π Oklahoma vs. Texas predictions
College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.
- Game prediction: Oklahoma ML (-108 via FanDuel) βββββ
- Over/Under pick: Under 45.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ββββ
- Player prop bet: John Mateer anytime TD (+150 via BetMGM) ββββ
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π Who will win Oklahoma vs. Texas?
Even if Mateer doesn't take the field, I expect Oklahoma to win this year's Red River Rivalry thanks to an elite defense. The Sooners have the No. 2 defense in the country, according to SP+, and Texas' offense has yet to figure things out with Manning behind center. The Longhorns are ranked just 63rd in the country in PPG (29.6).
With Manning's inefficiencies, Texas' inconsistent offensive line play, and both running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner being hampered by injuries early on, the Longhorns are going to have trouble scoring points. In two Power Four games this season, Manning has led Texas to just 28 total points. And this Sooners defense is on par with the Ohio State unit that Texas managed just seven points against.
Prior to Mateer being upgraded to probable, our best college football betting sites were offering Oklahoma at +2.5, which I would have gladly taken. But now with Mateer likely to suit up, the Sooners offense should be in far better shape, even if Mateer isn't 100%.
Prediction: Oklahoma 20, Texas 17
β Oklahoma vs. Texas expert pick
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
π ΎοΈ Oklahoma ML (-108) βββββ
This matchup does not set up well for Manning and Co. - Oklahoma has the best pass defense in the country. The Sooners allow the second-fewest passing yards per game in college football (118.4), rank No. 1 in EPA per pass on defense, and lead the Power Four in sacks (21). Meanwhile, Manning has Texas sitting at No. 109 in EPA per pass on offense, with the 16th-lowest adjusted completion rate in the country (69%) and the fifth-highest turnover-worthy play rate nationally (6.7%).
It's not like Brent Venables' run defense is susceptible either; Oklahoma is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (74.6) and ranks No. 14 in EPA per rush on defense. And while Texas has a top-notch defense, too, having Mateer back in Ben Arbuckle's offense is an X-factor for Oklahoma.
Pre-injury, Mateer led the Heisman Trophy odds and was taking advantage of an underrated Oklahoma pass-catching group led by Jaren Kanak and Deion Burks. With Oklahoma's talented defense, the Sooners should only need 20 or so points to win outright.
With Oklahoma being favored by one point, the moneyline is the play (Longhorns are just 1-4 ATS this season). A $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit if the Sooners win.
π° Best Oklahoma vs. Texas player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
π₯ John Mateer anytime TD (+150) ββββ
Since I'm taking Oklahoma to win with Mateer expected to play, my Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction has to also back the do-it-all QB to find the end zone. The Washington State transfer leads the Sooners in touchdowns this season (5) and has scored at least once in all four games he's played.
Mateer's a bell cow as a runner for Arbuckle's offense and has been Oklahoma's only consistent threat on the ground this season. So, if he's playing, it implies he's healthy enough to carry the load in the run game - he has 29 carries for 103 yards and three TDs in two Power Four games this season.
A big reason I'm backing Mateer to score, beyond the fact that Oklahoma's offense is built around his ball-carrying, is that this price at BetMGM is an anomaly. Mateer's odds to score are between +100 and +125 everywhere else, but this price pays a $15 profit on a $10 bet if he does put up six.
π Oklahoma vs. Texas odds
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
πΊ How to watch Oklahoma vs. Texas: Week 7
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
- TV: ABC
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