Oklahoma vs. Alabama Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview
I’m rolling out my Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction for Saturday’s pivotal SEC clash from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Am I siding with the No. 4 Crimson Tide, who are a consensus 6-point betting favorite? Or am I grabbing the points with No. 11 Oklahoma, which is coming off an upset win at Tennessee? Read on for my official pick as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.
✅ Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction & expert picks
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📊 Oklahoma vs. Alabama odds
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🏈 Oklahoma vs. Alabama preview & score prediction
Oklahoma deserves kudos for a gutsy 33-27 upset win at Tennessee in its most recent game two weeks ago. Then again, the Vols are now 0-for-3 against SEC powers this year, having previously lost to Georgia at home (44-41 in overtime) and at Alabama (37-20). So it’s not like the Sooners took down a juggernaut.
This week, though, they do face a juggernaut in Alabama, which is riding an eight-game winning streak (6-1-1 ATS). Included are three road wins — starting with a 24-21 upset at Georgia — and five double-digit home victories. This hot streak is one reason I’m laying the points with the Crimson Tide on Saturday.
Crimson Tide offense is rolling
Another reason: Behind quarterback and Heisman Trophy odds contender Ty Simpson, Alabama has averaged 29.3 points in seven wins against FBS competition. Conversely, Oklahoma’s defense is leaking, having surrendered 84 points in three of its last four games. The Sooners only allowed 43 total points in their other six contests.
This is a huge revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost 24-3 as a 13.5-point favorite at Oklahoma last season. Bet Alabama -5.5 at FanDuel's -118 odds. The implied win probability is 54.13%, where a $10 bet will profit $8.48.
Score prediction: Alabama 27, Oklahoma 17
💡 More Week 12 predictions
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for Week 12.
🆚 Oklahoma vs. Alabama matchup to watch
Ty Simpson vs. Oklahoma’s secondary
In its first seven games, Oklahoma’s defense surrendered an average of 132.6 passing yards per contest, but the Sooners didn't face a single dangerous passing attack during that stretch.
The narrative finally changed in the last two games. First, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss shredded the Sooners for 315 yards in Week 9. A week later, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar went for 393 yards.
That brings me to Alabama QB Ty Simpson, who is averaging 273.4 passing yards per game and 313 in his last four home outings. You can be sure the Crimson Tide will ride Simpson’s hot right arm again Saturday, especially since Oklahoma’s defense is stout against the run.
Best prop bet: Ty Simpson Over 267.5 passing yards (-115 via Caesars)
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📈 Oklahoma vs. Alabama betting trends
| Oklahoma | Statistic | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L record | 8-1 |
| 4-4-1 | ATS record | 6-2-1 |
| 2-7 | O/U record | 4-5 |
| 5.50 | Yards per play | 6.02 |
| 4.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.13 |
| -5 | Turnover margin | +10 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 33-27 @ Tennessee | Previous result | W, 20-9 vs. LSU |
🌤️ Oklahoma vs. Alabama weather
There are ideal weather conditions in the forecast for Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, Ala., with sunny skies and kickoff temperature in the mid-70s. Winds will be light, with occasional gusts of 12-14 mph.
📺 How to watch Oklahoma vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
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