Ohio State vs. Illinois Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7

In one of three top 25 matchups on the Week 7 slate, the defending champions have their toughest opponent since Texas in Week 1, and my Ohio State vs. Illinois prediction and college football picks expect the Buckeyes' defense to keep scoring to a minimum.

With Ohio State sitting as a 14.5-point betting favorite for the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill., our college football predictions for Week 7 project a low-scoring Big Ten matchup at noon ET on Saturday.

🏈 Ohio State vs. Illinois predictions

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: Illinois +14.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 51 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Julian Sayin Over 2.5 TD passes (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Ohio State vs. Illinois?

Despite Ohio State playing with its food in two of its last three wins (Ohio, Washington), the Buckeyes have never trailed after the first quarter of a game this season. Day's completely reloaded this roster, which is why the Buckeyes are atop the college football national championship odds after losing so much of last year's team to the NFL.

While Illinois is Ohio State's first ranked opponent since beating Texas, 14-7, the Fighting Illini's pass defense has been an issue in both their matchups against ranked teams this season (Indiana, USC). Even with Ohio State's inconsistent run game and reluctance to let Julian Sayin rip it in higher leverage games, the Buckeyes have too much talent at receiver to be kept quiet for four quarters.

Ultimately, I don't expect this to be much of a game, even with me leaning toward Illinois covering. With Matt Patricia's defense looking like the best in the country, I think this game is like close to 30-10 entering the fourth quarter before a garbage time score helps Illinois cover.

Prediction: Ohio State 30, Illinois 17

✅ Ohio State vs. Illinois expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 51 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State lost several key defensive starters to the NFL and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Penn State, and yet, this defense is just as good. That's a credit to the Buckeyes' recruiting and development, and Patricia's play-calling. Led by the best linebacker duo in the nation, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles, and All-American safety Caleb Downs, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in SP+ on defense and allowing the fewest points per game in the nation (5.0).

Thanks to the emergence of Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald on the D-line to complement a loaded back seven, the Buckeyes have given up just two touchdowns this season. They rank No. 8 in EPA per pass, and should be able to slow Illinois QB Luke Altmyer and wide receiver Hank Beatty down. 

And while Illinois' defense has been shaky, we've seen Ohio State's run game be sporadic (No. 62 in EPA per rush) with freshman Bo Jackson being by far the most consistent running back thus far. Much like Ohio State's 24-6 win over Washington (which had a game total of 54), I expect the Buckeyes' defense to be the reason they cash another Under.

Ohio State is 3-1 betting the Under against FBS competition this season, and if these two combined for less than 51 points, a $10 bet pays a $9.80 profit.

💰 Best Ohio State vs. Illinois player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Julian Sayin Over 2.5 TD passes (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Betting the Under with the Over on Sayin touchdown passes might seem strange, but I just don't see any way Illinois puts up more than 17 points in this game. But that doesn't mean I don't expect the Buckeyes' passing attack to keep thriving behind the play of their new QB1.

Sayin is No. 1 in the country in adjusted completion rate (86.7%), No. 8 in QBR (85.8), and No. 8 in TD passes. Throwing to the combo of future first-round picks Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate has certainly helped the former blue-chip recruit find his footing, and those two wide receivers should cook an Illinois defense missing it's best cornerback (Xavier Scott).

Illinois is allowing the most passing yards per game in the Big Ten (252.3), has given up the second-most TD passes in the Big Ten (10), and ranks No. 94 in EPA per pass on defense nationally. If Sayin throws three-plus TDs for the fourth time in five games, a $10 bet pays a $13 profit.

📊 Ohio State vs. Illinois odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Ohio State vs. Illinois: Week 7

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Ill.)
• TV: FOX