Notre Dame vs. Pitt Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

I’m taking advantage of a bad point spread with my Notre Dame vs. Pitt prediction for Saturday’s battle between Top 25 teams.

Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is set for noon ET (ABC), with No. 9 Notre Dame listed as a 12.5-point betting favorite over No. 22 Pitt. In my opinion, the point spread is off by at least three points, and I’m pouncing on that mistake as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

✅ Notre Dame vs. Pitt prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12.

📊 Notre Dame vs. Pitt odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 12.

🏈 Notre Dame vs. Pitt preview & score prediction

Five straight wins, five straight covers, not a single loss by more than seven points through nine games - that sums up the 2025 Pitt Panthers and explains why I’m grabbing the points in this matchup.

I know: Pitt has played a soft schedule - its toughest opponent to date was Louisville, and the Panthers lost 34-27 as a 6.5-point home underdog. That followed a 31-24 upset loss at rival West Virginia as a 7-point road favorite. Aside from those two contests, Pitt has consistently beaten market expectations, including six easy covers.

Panthers offense will test Irish

Obviously, Notre Dame is no slouch, having won seven straight since season-opening upset losses to Miami and Texas A&M. The Irish’s defense has turned a corner, too, holding five of their last six opponents to 13 points or fewer after giving up 27, 41, and 30 in the first three games. But Pitt’s offense is legit, averaging 39.5 points per game (sixth-most in the nation).

The Panthers have tallied at least 24 points in every game. So give me the 12.5 points that DraftKings is offering. The implied win probability at -108 odds is 51.92%. Risk $10 to win $9.26.

Score prediction: Notre Dame 31, Pitt 24

🆚 Notre Dame vs. Pitt matchup to watch

CJ Carr vs. Pitt's secondary

Without question, Pitt’s weakest link is its secondary. While the Panthers rank third in the nation in rushing defense (80.9 yards per game) - and actually allow fewer total yards and fewer yards per play than Notre Dame - they rank 96th against the pass (237.4 yards per game).

So, for the Panthers to spring a big upset - or even get inside the point spread - they’ll have to slow down Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr. No easy task, as Carr sports the nation’s third-best passer rating.

That said, Carr has had some duds: 136 yards vs. USC, 189 vs. Boise State, 218 vs. Navy, and 221 at Miami. He will also have to contend with soggy conditions Saturday, which probably means more conservative passes and fewer deep shots - a huge advantage for Pitt’s beleaguered defensive backs.

Best prop bet: CJ Carr Under 255.5 passing yards (-114 via Caesars)

📈 Notre Dame vs. Pitt betting trends

🌤️ Notre Dame vs. Pitt weather

Rain is expected to start falling about two hours before kickoff and continue throughout the game, with thunderstorms also in the forecast, which could lead to a lightning-induced weather delay. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s to low 60s, with steady 10 mph winds and occasional gusts up to 20 mph.

📺 How to watch Notre Dame vs. Pitt

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ABC