Northwestern vs. Maryland Prediction Tonight: Week 7 Picks & Odds
Two Big Ten teams look for their first conference win tonight at 8 p.m. ET when the Maryland Terrapins (3-2) host the Northwestern Wildcats (2-3) in these programs' fifth meeting of all time.
If the Terrapins’ defense can slow down the Wildcats’ offense, then our Northwestern vs. Maryland prediction is simple: Maryland will win by a lot.
But the Terps have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, and while the Wildcats’ offense isn’t great, they’re talented enough to take advantage of this matchup.
Still, Maryland is favored by 10.5 points across our best sportsbooks after winning three games by at least 14 points and scoring at least 24 points in all five of its contests. Can the defense do enough to help the Terrapins cover the spread?
Northwestern vs. Maryland odds movement
Maryland was favored by 9.5 points when the market first opened for this game, and bettors pushed that line all the way up to 11.5 across our best sports betting sites.
It has since settled at 10.5 in the hours before kickoff tonight, which is a number we felt held value for the Terrapins earlier this week.
This game also profiles as a potential high-scoring affair, which is why the total has jumped from as low as 42.5 to as high as 46.5 at some shops.
Best Northwestern vs. Maryland picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Maryland -10.5 (-112 via FanDuel) vs. Northwestern ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jack Lausch Over 177.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Northwestern vs. Maryland against the spread prediction: Week 7
Maryland to cover the spread: -10.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Northwestern vs. Maryland opening odds:
- Northwestern: +9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Maryland: -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Terrapins too much for Wildcats
The spread has moved through the key number of 10 across all of our best sports betting apps after opening at 9.5.
This may seem like a lot of points to give a team that has only beaten one Power 4 opponent this season, but when you look at the stats and rosters, the Terrapins deserve the support they’re getting from bettors and oddsmakers.
The Terps are averaging 32.3 points per game, tied for the 36th-most in the nation. Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown for 1,444 yards in five games, and he’s yet to throw for fewer than 250 yards in a single contest this season.
He also takes care of the ball, with only two interceptions and 11 touchdowns this year.
Can Maryland defense hold up?
The Terrapins' biggest weakness is their pass defense, as they have given up nearly 300 yards per game through the air.
While Jack Lausch will throw for yards against this defense, most of that success should come when the game is out of reach. After all, this offense is averaging just 158.0 passing yards per game this season.
The Wildcats’ defense has allowed at least 20 points in three of their four games against FBS opponents. They allowed 41 to the Indiana Hoosiers last week.
They’re going to give up a lot of points this week, and their offensive strengths don’t match the weaknesses of the Terrapins’ defense. The only thing to worry about is a backdoor cover.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Northwestern vs. Maryland best bet
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Jack Lausch Over 177.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I already discussed how bad the Terps’ pass defense is and the fact that the Wildcats’ offense won’t be able to take advantage of the weakness. But that doesn’t excuse this number being so low.
Lausch has thrown for at least 227 yards in two of his three games this season. He did go 8-of-27 for 53 yards and two interceptions against the Washington Huskies a few weeks ago, but the Terrapins’ pass defense isn’t nearly that good.
This number would probably be at 200 if Lausch had more than one solid game against an FBS opponent. But with how much the Terrapins score, he’s going to have opportunities for success - even if it doesn’t come until late in the game.
Without any weather conditions to worry about, this number feels about 15 yards too low at FanDuel, where a winning $10 bet would return an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Northwestern vs. Maryland odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Northwestern vs. Maryland game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 11
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: SECU Stadium (College Park, Md.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 57 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 2 mph W
- Favorite: Maryland -10.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
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