Northern Illinois vs. UMass Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

Wednesday's MACtion gives two teams a rare opportunity to earn a victory as Northern Illinois (2-7) faces UMass (0-9). My Northern Illinois vs. UMass prediction breaks down all of the action ahead of kickoff from Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Mass., at 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU).

Northern Illinois is as high as an 11.5-point betting favorite. While my college football Week 12 predictions don't expect UMass to get off the snide as the lone remaining winless FBS team, it should still be competitive amid the Huskies’ quarterback issues.

✅ Northern Illinois vs. UMass prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12.

📊 Northern Illinois vs. UMass odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 12.

🏈 Northern Illinois vs. UMass preview & score prediction

Northern Illinois was non-competitive as a two-touchdown underdog at Toledo last week. The Huskies fell into a 28-3 halftime hole, and the problems only compounded in the second half. While Northern Illinois may not be built to play catch-up, its offensive issues are concerning leading into this matchup.

Northern Illinois has a quarterback problem

Getting behind early was the worst possible scenario for Northern Illinois last week. Quarterback Josh Holst’s 689 passing yards are the fewest among regular MAC starting quarterbacks. And after he started just 5-of-13 for 87 yards last week, he was benched for Brady Davidson, who managed just 3.4 yards per attempt on 16 throws.

Despite all of that, the Huskies remained insistent on getting their running game going, with 36 rushing attempts to 29 passing attempts. Northern Illinois had averaged five yards per carry in every MAC game this season up to that point, but could only muster 1.7 yards per carry against a Toledo defense that ranked outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed entering that matchup.

UMass has lost its games by an average of more than four touchdowns per contest, and its minus-27.7 scoring margin was second-worst to Oklahoma State before last week’s 34-point loss to Akron. But perhaps Toledo gave UMass a blueprint to slowing down Northern Illinois, and the Huskies’ quarterback issues inspire no confidence to back them to cover.

I am making my $10 wager on the +11.5 at FanDuel, the only one of the best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds at that number. UMass is as low as a 10.5-point ‘dog at the opposite end of the market, which makes this potential $9.09 net profit a great value.

Our Rob Paul breaks down the entire conference slate with his MAC best bets for Week 12.

Score prediction: Northern Illinois 24, UMass 17

🆚 Northern Illinois vs. UMass matchup to watch

Brady Davidson vs. UMass defense

If Northern Illinois makes the change to Brady Davidson as its starting quarterback this week, expect a conservative game plan early. Davidson led the Huskies on touchdown drives on their first two possessions in an early October start, but the offense stalled from there and totaled 84 yards of offense the rest of the game.

Northern Illinois will likely be content to rely on a defense that entered last week ranked 54th in Success Rate and 11th in EPA Per Play allowed. UMass’ offense entered last week going three-and-out on 46% of its drives in MAC play, and I do not see either team opening up its offense unless it is forced to late. 

I would not put anyone off backing the first-half Under of 21.5 at -110 odds at the low end of the market, as 22 is not exactly a key number in football betting. Nevertheless, I am taking the extra point in value at FanDuel, where a $10 wager at its -122 odds (54.95% implied probability) would return $8.20 in profits in the event of a low-scoring first half.

Best prop bet: First-half Under 22.5 (-122 via FanDuel)

📈 Northern Illinois vs. UMass betting trends

🌤️ Northern Illinois vs. UMass weather

Temperatures will drop into the mid 30s in Amherst on Wednesday night. Wind gusts will die down throughout the day and blow at a max of 13 mph during game time, and there is a limited chance of precipitation (15%). 

📺 How to watch Northern Illinois vs. UMass

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 12
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium (Amherst, Mass.)
• TV: ESPNU