North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction & Odds: American Conference Championship Betting Preview

With a College Football Playoff spot on the line, let’s dive into our North Texas vs. Tulane prediction for the American Conference Championship. Kickoff from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans is slated for 8 p.m. ET (ABC).

No. 24 North Texas is a 2.5-point betting favorite over No. 20 Tulane; my college football conference championship predictions include my favorite play on which side will cover and my top player prop.

North Texas vs. Tulane predictions: American Conference Championship

North Texas vs. Tulane best bet & score prediction

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North Texas -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both head coaches in this matchup are headed elsewhere: North Texas’ Eric Morris will lead Oklahoma State next year, and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall will lead Florida. Both coaches, unlike Lane Kiffin, are also sticking around despite their looming departures with a college football playoff berth on the line. The winner of Saturday’s game is guaranteed a bid as the fifth-ranked conference champ.

While Tulane is the bigger-name problem (and Sumrall the bigger-name coach), North Texas is a road favorite–and rightfully so. The Mean Green rank 37th in the FPI, 30th in the FEI, and 38th in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. The Green Wave rank 57th, 63rd, and 55th, respectively. The FEI makes North Texas a 5.8-point road favorite. Sagarin makes North Texas a whopping 8.8-point favorite.

Can Tulane Slow Down the North Texas Passing Attack?

The key to Friday’s matchup will be Sumrall’s defense. Tulane must slow down the third-ranked offense by yards per pass attempt (9.9) that, over the last three games, is averaging a game-breaking 15.7 yards per pass attempt. The next-best team over that sample is South Florida (11.4). Quarterback Drew Mestemaker ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (178.2).

So, how does Tulane’s defense size up here? Not well. The Green Wave rank 79th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4). They haven’t played many efficient passing offenses, but the losses to UTSA (11.5 yards per pass attempt) and Ole Miss (11.4) don’t paint a pretty picture. Worse, in terms of passing efficiency, UTSA’s Owen McCown (146.8) and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss (157.6) trail Mestemaker.

Tulane will have home-field advantage in what is essentially a play-in game for the postseason – and a farewell tour for the coaching staff. That means something, but it probably doesn’t mean enough for the spread for this game to be below a field goal. Lock in North Texas to cover the 2.5-point spread at -110 (52.4%) on FanDuel to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 wager.

Score prediction: North Texas 38, Tulane 28

While  my prediction lands right on the number, our Mike Spector's college football best bets this week have a play on the total.

North Texas vs. Tulane matchup to watch

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Cameron Dorner vs. Tulane Secondary

Sumrall’s secondary will have to lock in on North Texas’ leading receiver, Wyatt Young, whose 19.4 yards per reception (10th nationally) and 1,203 receiving yards (third) are utterly game-breaking. We have a play on him in our North Texas vs. Tulane player props. 

Cameron Dorner is a solid secondary option who averages 17.5 yards per reception (29th) and boasts 769 receiving yards (56th). His ability to complement Young will prove crucial.

Tulane’s secondary lacks the talent to stop Young without double-teaming him. South Florida, the lone team to beat North Texas, was only able to hold him to 79 receiving yards. In that game, Dorner notched five catches for 83 yards. Dorner has now gone over this week’s receiving yardage prop total (57.5) in four of his last five, through which he isa averaging 84 yards per game on 22.1 yards per catch.I

Best prop bet: Cameron Dorner Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365)

North Texas vs. Tulane odds

See live college football odds for every conference championship game.

North Texas vs. Tulane betting trends

North Texas vs. Tulane weather

The current North Texas vs. Tulane weather forecast calls for a 66% chance of precipitation around kickoff, with conditions improving somewhat as the game progresses. Temperatures in the mid-50s and winds just under 10 mph are expected.

How to watch North Texas vs. Tulane: American Conference Championship

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Yulman Stadium (New Orleans)
• TV: ABC