North Carolina vs. California Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who'll Win in College Football Week 8?

In Bill Belichick's first game since rumors began that he's looking to leave Chapel Hill, my North Carolina vs. California prediction and picks, as part of our college football predictions for Week 8, don't foresee a Friday night cross-country road game at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif., going well for the Tar Heels. 

Cal is a 9.5-point betting favorite at home for Friday's 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff (ESPN), and my college football picks are backing the Golden Bears behind the arm of freshman phenom Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

🏈 North Carolina vs. California prediction

College football picks for Week 8; odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: California -9.5 (-124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win North Carolina vs. California?

There's no reason to believe North Carolina will win this game; the Tar Heels are 0-3 against Power Four opponents and have lost those games by an average of 29 points. With all eyes on Belichick and GM Michael Lombardi following last week's reporting around the situation at North Carolina, Justin Wilcox's team should win with ease at home.

✅ Best North Carolina vs. California bet

🐻 California -9.5 (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It looked like Cal might be plateauing under Wilcox after the team finished under .500 in five straight seasons. But thanks to former blue-chip recruit JKS leaving Oregon after less than a month to join the Golden Bears, everything has changed in Berkeley.

Cal is 4-2 and has won two of its three Power Four games, with both wins coming as an underdog. While the Golden Bears' offense has been inconsistent, JKS' arm talent is undeniable, and he should put pressure on a bad North Carolina pass defense.

The freshman is No. 13 in the P4 in big-time throws (11) and has enough weapons - Trond Grizzell, Jacob De Jesus, Mason Mini - to take advantage of a North Carolina defense that's No. 95 in EPA per pass. But the flip side of this matchup is the bigger reason UNC is in trouble.

🐐 Gio Lopez is no Tom Brady, and Max Johnson ain't Drew Bledsoe

North Carolina's offense is a mess after Belichick and Lombardi missed severely with their approach of building this team via the transfer portal. Quarterback has been a big issue with both Gio Lopez and Max Johnson playing this season, resulting in UNC having the No. 125 offense in EPA per pass.

With Cal's defense being one of the better units in the ACC, the Tar Heels won't score enough to cover. If North Carolina takes its ATS record to 0-4 against the P4, a $10 bet pays an $8.06 profit.

And remember, don't underestimate this Cal home crowd ... the Calgorithm effect is real. 

⚖️ North Carolina vs. California score prediction: California 29-North Carolina 17

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 47.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

North Carolina is averaging 11 points per game against Power Four teams and is ranked No. 110 on offense by SP+. The only teams the Tar Heels have scored more than 20 points against this season was Richmond, an FCS program. That's why the Under is the play, Cal isn't going to let this team light it up.

The Golden Bears are No. 30 in the nation in EPA per pass on defense and allowing just 22.5 points per game. And while JKS is a talented young QB, he's only led Cal to 25.3 points per game against P4 teams.

Both of these offenses are among the bottom three in the ACC in yards per game, so don't tune in to expect much scoring. If the Under hits, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

📊 North Carolina vs. California odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. California

• Date: Friday, Oct. 17
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: California Memorial Stadium (Berkeley, Calif.)
• TV: ESPN