College Football Week 12 Expert Picks: Count on Michigan to Stay Hot

Our Sportsbook Review analysts have collected their expert college football picks for the Week 12 card based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps, and this page serves as your one-stop shop for our best picks for Saturday’s action.

Perhaps no other sport matches college football in terms of regular-season importance, and the campaign has reached its second-last week. Let’s all make sure to enjoy these last two Saturdays loaded with games.

Week 12 has only three matchups between two ranked teams, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be an important slate to navigate from a betting perspective. No. 1 Georgia heads to No. 22 Tennessee for its toughest test of the regular season, though there are plenty of other potential landmines for teams with postseason aspirations.

Our college football experts have put together a list of their favorite picks involving the top teams in the sport. For our complete betting coverage of this weekend, check out our Week 12 predictions, Week 12 upset picks, Week 12 parlay predictions, and Week 12 player props before Saturday’s action. 

In conjunction with our college football player props and best bets for Saturday, here are our best college football expert picks for Week 12 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football Top 25 schedule

(Odds via FanDuel)

• No. 9 Louisville (-1.5) at Miami Florida
• Rutgers at No. 12 Penn State (-20.5)
• No. 2 Michigan (-19.5) at Maryland
• No. 14 Oklahoma (-24.5) at BYU
• No. 17 Tulane (-9.5) at Florida Atlantic
• No. 16 Utah at No. 19 Arizona (-1.5)
• Wake Forest at No. 20 Notre Dame (-24.5)
• No. 22 North Carolina at Clemson (-7.5)
• No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) at No. 21 Tennessee
• Minnesota at No. 3 Ohio State (-27.5)
• No. 6 Oregon (-23.5) at Arizona State State
• No. 24 Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Houston
• No. 23 Kansas State (-9.5) at Kansas
• Florida at No. 11 Missouri (-10.5)
• No. 5 Washington at No. 10 Oregon State (-1.5)
• No. 7 Texas (-7.5) at Iowa State

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College football Week 12 expert picks

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College football Week 12 top picks

Kaden Prather Over 2.5 receptions (-106 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

No. 2 Michigan (10-0) deserves a ton of credit, particularly on the defensive end where the Wolverines rank second in the nation in team passing efficiency. But this line is awfully low for a talented Maryland receiver in a game where Michigan might get caught looking ahead to its regular-season finale against Ohio State.

The truth is, we see value in Kaden Prather’s receiving yardage prop of 31.5 in a game where we project him to record more than 40 yards. Prather has cleared 31.5 receiving yards in nine straight games, accumulating 523 yards on the year.

But the markets at the freshly-launched ESPN Bet allow us to bet on volume instead of production, something that makes it stand out among our best sports betting apps. In this case, we can get -106 odds on Prather to record three-plus catches against Michigan.

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Not only should he be projected closer to four receptions, but this is a mark that he’s had no problem clearing this season.

Prather, who has 37 catches on the year, has recorded at least three receptions in eight of his 10 games. This includes a three-catch, 49-yard performance against Ohio State — the only team to rank ahead of Michigan in pass defense efficiency. Let’s buy low on Prather in this spot.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

J.J. McCarthy Over 16.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conventional wisdom suggests that Michigan interim head coach Sherrone Moore would want to avoid putting quarterback J.J. McCarthy in harm's way with next week's massive showdown against Ohio State looming. However, we have seen unconventional things from the Wolverines lately, like having McCarthy attempt just eight passes in the middle of a Heisman campaign and calling 32 consecutive running plays last week against Penn State. 

Maryland may have entered last week ranked 16th in the country in yards per rush allowed, but against the nation's fifth-heaviest rushing attack, Nebraska ran for 183 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. The Terrapins defense entered last week ranked 87th in Rush Success and 62nd in Pass Success, so we may see another limited passing day from McCarthy with more read options sprinkled in, especially since Maryland ranks outside the top 80 in Line Yards.

The biggest reason we are drawn to this wager is bet365's eye-popping line of +110 for McCarthy's anytime touchdown scorer odds. McCarthy has scored touchdowns in just two of 10 games this season, and if oddsmakers set the price that short for him to find the end zone, they might be hinting at a big day coming on the ground.

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This is a four-star play, as McCarthy has exceeded this rushing total in five of seven games where he has a positive rushing total. There is the possibility of sacks lowering the quarterback's rushing total. However, while Maryland is tied for 17th in sacks (28), McCarthy has been sacked one or fewer times in the previous six games. The Terrapins also rank 94th in Havoc. 

DraftKings at bet365 have both lowered McCarthy’s rushing total from an opening number of 17.5, but this is still worth a play at the lower number despite paying up slightly in juice.

–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)

Cody Schrader Over 114.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When I wrote up Cody Schrader’s rushing yards prop two weeks ago, his line hovered around 62.5 yards because of the matchup against the fearsome Georgia defense. Schrader smashed it, logging a triple-digit rushing output. So next week, the line jumped to 91.5 yards. Against Tennessee’s stout run defense, that was a respectable jump. Schrader cleared it in the first half, rushing for more than 200 yards in the game against what had been the best run defense in the SEC.

The nation has awoken to the prowess of the former walk-on and the best sportsbooks are straining to find a line that Schrader can’t shred. Another jump to 114.5 yards at FanDuel isn’t enough this week, as Mizzou’s bowling ball of a senior running back gets a Florida run defense that has allowed 172.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 96th in FBS.

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While Schrader has eclipsed this line only four times on the year, he is dominating the backfield touches down the stretch compared to his early-season role for the Tigers. With Schrader aiming for his fifth straight game with 20-plus carries — he had 35 against the Vols — a game script featuring Missouri as a double-digit favorite should allow for another robust outing on Senior Night.

The rest of the market has listed the rushing line at 115.5 yards, with less favorable odds than the -114 value we get at FanDuel.

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

Blake Corum two-plus touchdowns (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Corum leads college football with 18 rushing touchdowns. He has scored at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season, and he has scored two or more in six of his 10 games. He has scored at least two in back-to-back contests and three of his last four.

This week, Corum faces a defense that is allowing 24.2 points per game. Against the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes, Maryland allowed 51 and 37 points, respectively. Based on those results, Corum is going to have plenty of opportunities to score this week. Considering everything he has done this season, there’s no reason to think he won’t capitalize on his opportunities.

Don’t bet on Corum to score just one touchdown. The cheapest you’ll find that prop is -500, and some of the best sports betting sites have the odds at -700 or lower. Sportsbooks consider him a lock to score at least one touchdown, so to be able to get +105 for him to score two touchdowns almost feels too good to be true.

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DraftKings has the best price at the moment, but it could be worth monitoring to see if you can get +110 or better. However, we believe this price is only going to get worse, not better. 

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

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