College Football Upset Predictions: 3 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 7

A +220 cash with Wake Forest beating Virginia Tech helped us turn in a profitable week with our college football upset predictions from last week, and we aim to keep that ball rolling.

It will be interesting to see if bettors load up on fading high-ranked teams with their college football picks, given that the preseason top two AP-ranked teams (Texas and Penn State) are a combined 6-4 and are both now out of the AP poll. My college football predictions for Week 7 feature three unranked teams pulling upsets over AP top 25 teams. 

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🏈 College football upset picks: Week 7

College football upset picks odds subject to change.

• North Texas to win (-105 via Caesars) vs. South Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Pittsburgh to win (+320 via DraftKings) at Florida State ⭐⭐
• Colorado to win (+140 via BetMGM) vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐

🚨 Best college football Week 7 moneyline underdogs to bet

College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 North Texas (-105) vs. South Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For as overvalued as several of the top teams were in the preseason, who are no longer ranked in the AP poll, perhaps pundits were equally as wrong about North Texas. The media picked the Mean Green to finish eighth in the American in the summer.

North Texas has proven its ability to win close games, as evidenced by its two road victories over Western Michigan and reigning AAC champion Army. 

It was difficult to know what quarterback (and former walk-on) Drew Mestemaker would develop into. But after the team’s 5-0 start, he has the third-best passing grade in the country, per PFF.

Mestemaker has excellent command of North Texas’ Air Raid offense, and is supported by an opportunistic defense that has 11 takeaways and ranks in the top four in the conference in both scoring and total defense. That is a massive improvement, coming after breaking in eight new starters, following a ranking of 119th or worse in scoring and total defense a year ago. 

With North Texas having the benefit of a bye last week, that increases the chances of this surprise conference title contender to pull the upset over No. 24 South Florida.

While FanDuel has this game as a virtual pick’em with both teams at -110 odds (carrying a 52.38% implied probability), I am taking advantage of the best number at Caesars. If North Texas pulls the upset, my $10 wager would net $9.52 in profits.

📊 Live South Florida vs. North Texas odds

🎯 Pittsburgh (+320) at Florida State ⭐⭐

Florida State’s College Football Playoff chances are on life support after suffering its second straight loss to an ACC opponent. And while the Seminoles lost 28-22 to now-No. 2 Miami last week, the game was well in doubt when the Hurricanes raced out to a 28-3 lead entering the fourth quarter. 

Florida State’s three points through three quarters were a far cry from its FBS-best 53 points per game average entering last week. Now, this is a brutal situational spot for the Seminoles in a noon game the week after a deflating and humbling loss to their fiercest rivals.

But the confidence in Pittsburgh also comes from its change in quarterback from Eli Holstein to Mason Heintschel last week. Heintschel became the first ACC true freshman with 300 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in their first career start since Deshaun Watson did so for Clemson against UNC in 2014.

Heintschel will look to attack a Florida State secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in pass rush and coverage grade. And the Panthers should hold their own defensively, ranking in the top five nationally in stuff rate, pass rush, and line yards.

Several of the best sports betting sites are in unison on the high end of the market with Pittsburgh as +320 underdogs at 23.81% implied odds. I give the Panthers much better than a one-in-four chance of pulling the upset over No. 25 Florida State, and am backing that confidence with a $10 wager in the hopes of netting $32 in profit.

📊 Live Pittsburgh vs. Florida State odds

🎯 Colorado (+140) vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐

No. 22 Iowa State’s ceiling figured to be much lower when news broke last week that it would be without two starting defensive backs, Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper, for the rest of the season with knee injuries.

However, Cincinnati surprisingly did not expose that weakness thoroughly in last week’s 38-30 home win over the Cyclones, as it completed just 13 of 25 passes. The passing game was explosive, with an average of 8.6 yards per attempt, and Iowa State seemingly looked to protect its vulnerable secondary with light boxes, allowing a whopping 264 rushing yards and 8.0 yards per carry.

Colorado was a 14.5-point road underdog against TCU last week and raced out to a 14-0 lead, which was still a 21-21 game with six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Buffaloes got much improved offensive line play, only allowing two sacks while entering the game 100th in Havoc Allowed. 

The Buffaloes allowed four passing touchdowns last week after entering ranked outside the top 120 in Passing Success Rate Allowed. But Iowa State should help in that regard by getting back to the formula of a more conservative offense, as quarterback Rocco Becht attempted 27 or fewer passes in each of the team’s first four wins.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering odds better than +136 for Colorado to pull the upset. Through its +140 price at 41.67% implied odds, a $10 wager would return $14 in profits if the Buffaloes pull the upset.

📊 Live Iowa State vs. Colorado odds

💰 College football Week 7 underdog moneyline parlay

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ College football upset picks FAQs

What are the best upset picks for Week 7?

My best college football upset picks for Week 7 back North Texas over South Florida, Pittsburgh to beat Florida State, and Colorado to upset Iowa State.

How to predict a college football upset

You can predict a college football upset by identifying matchups where an underdog’s strengths directly exploit a favorite’s weaknesses, i.e., a strong run game against a poor rush defense. Also look for situational factors like turnovers, injuries, weather, or letdown spots that can neutralize talent gaps and swing momentum.

How do college football moneyline odds work?

When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.