College Football Upset Picks Week 9: 3 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet

We’re coming off a profit of plus-5.1 units over the last two weeks and nearly missed a clean sweep of last week’s college football upset picks when our only incorrect pick lost by a point on a late field goal.

My college football picks this week include an underdog in a Power Four conference facing a team amid a four-game losing streak. Adding to my college football predictions for Week 9 is a ranked team that is an underdog to an unranked opponent, and I'm also taking a flier on a high-profile head coach whose team has been dismissed in recent weeks.

🏈 College football upset picks: Week 9

College football upset picks for Week 9; college football odds subject to change.

• North Carolina (+315 via FanDuel) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐
• Purdue (+110 via bet365) vs. Rutgers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• BYU (+130 via BetMGM) at Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐

🚨 Best moneyline underdogs to bet in Week 9

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🎯 North Carolina (+315) ⭐⭐

As recently as a few weeks ago, rumors were swirling about whether North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick would finish the season, let alone come back for a second year. And while the Tar Heels are amid a three-game losing streak and remain winless against Power Four competition, they looked much more competitive out of the bye week against California.

Virginia is fortunate to be ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll as one of the unbeaten teams in ACC play, as it was victorious in three games where it had a 45% or lower postgame win expectancy. 

The Cavaliers have also allowed pressure on 31.6% of quarterback Chandler Morris’ dropbacks, while North Carolina’s defense ranks in the top 20 and 50, respectively, in Line Yards and pass rush.

North Carolina has had an extra day to prepare for this game, and the noon ET start should help in an upset bid of a Virginia team with two straight wins by five combined points. 

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering the home underdogs at higher than +310. If North Carolina pulls the upset, my $10 wager at +315 odds, with a 24.10% implied probability, would net $31.50 in profit.

📊 Live Virginia vs. North Carolina odds

🎯 Purdue (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rutgers and Purdue is a matchup of two of five winless Big Ten teams in league play, and the two opponents have lost nine consecutive games between them.

While Rutgers feasted on Ohio, Miami (OH), and Norfolk State to open the season 3-0, it has since lost its four conference games by an average of 19.5 points despite only facing one team in the top six of the Big Ten preseason media poll.

If Purdue learns how to stop beating itself, it could develop into a dangerous football team. The Boilermakers lost a road game to Minnesota on a late pick-six after committing nine penalties and ending with a minus-three turnover differential two weeks ago. They followed that up with eight more penalties and two more turnovers last week. 

Rutgers has forced just seven turnovers in seven games this year, and I expect backup Boilermakers quarterback Malachi Singleton to take better care of the football in place of the injured and turnover-prone Ryan Browne.

bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering the underdogs at +110 odds. That price implies a 47.62% chance that Purdue pulls the upset and would result in an $11 profit on a $10 winning wager.

📊 Live Rutgers vs. Purdue odds

🎯 BYU (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

BYU is coming off a win against its biggest rival Utah in the "Holy War." And in starting the season 7-0, it has already surpassed its preseason win total of 6.5.

BYU’s low win total was likely because of the unknown surrounding freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. But Bachmeier has passed every test so far and overcame three interceptions in the previous two games by playing turnover-free football against a stout Utah defense.

Bachmeier is now one of four true freshman quarterbacks to start their careers 7-0, and the first since 2018. His versatility as one of two freshman quarterbacks in the country with eight-plus rushing and eight or more passing touchdowns makes him difficult to prepare for.

Iowa State is reeling after dropping back-to-back games to Cincinnati and Colorado. While head coach Matt Campbell is 29-16 ATS off a straight-up loss over the last nine seasons, he failed to cover his last game in this spot, as the season-ending injuries to all-Big 12 defensive backs Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams have taken their toll.

The best return on a $10 wager is through BetMGM’s +130 odds, which carry a 43.48% implied probability. If BYU pulls a second straight upset, the bet would pay out $13 in profits.

📊 Live BYU vs. Iowa State odds