College Football Upset Picks Today: 3 Week 6 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet Outright

A +200 cash with Illinois beating USC helped us break even with our three college football upset picks last week.

It will be interesting if bettors load up on fading high-ranked teams with their college football picks one week after half of the AP top-8 all lost outright. My college football predictions for Week 6 include my best upset pick on a Friday night game, and two upsets in ACC matchups. 

🏈 College football upset picks today: Week 6

College football upset picks odds subject to change.

• Wake Forest (+220 via BetMGM) at Virginia Tech ⭐⭐⭐
• California (+125 via bet365) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• New Mexico (+115 via Caesars) at San Jose State ❌

🔮 College football expert picks today

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🚨 Best college football Week 6 moneyline underdogs to bet

College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Wake Forest (+220) ⭐⭐⭐

Wake Forest heads to Lane Stadium to take on a resurgent Virginia Tech team that is 2-0 under interim head coach Philip Montgomery, after starting 0-3 under Brent Pry.

The key to a Demon Deacons upset is to mentally overcome the sting of losing last week’s game to Georgia Tech, which was tied for the Yellow Jackets’ second-largest comeback (17 points) in program history. Georgia Tech had been 1-67 over the previous 20 years when trailing by at least 17 points.

Wake Forest was still a two-point conversion away in overtime from beating a team that now has the third-best chance (30%) to reach the ACC Championship Game, per ESPN Analytics. But the Demon Deacons had no business losing that game, as the referees failed to call offsides on Georgia Tech on a 3rd-and-5, which would have effectively ended the game with Wake Forest leading by three.

Had Wake Forest handed Georgia Tech its first loss last week, there is a good chance it would not be road underdogs this week. But considering road teams won all five ACC matchups in Week 5, these 31.25% implied odds seem like a steal.

BetMGM is the only best sports betting app offering a price higher than +215. Through its +220 odds, a $10 wager would return $22 in profits if the Demon Deacons pull the upset.

📊 Live Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech odds

🎯 California (+125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

California beat Boston College on the road 28-24 last week after trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. That marked the Golden Bears’ largest road comeback win since 2018.

California is now 4-1, which is tied for its best five-game start since Justin Wilcox took over as head coach in 2017.

Meanwhile, Duke is coming off a 35-point win over Syracuse, which is tied for its largest margin of victory over an ACC opponent since 2019. But the Orange were playing their first game without injured quarterback and Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, and effectively handed Duke the game with three turnovers, which the Blue Devils converted for 10 points.

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is the first Blue Devils player with multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games over the last 30 seasons. But the Golden Bears can control time of possession and keep the ball out of his hands with running back Kendrick Raphael, who is coming off a 113-yard performance last week.

California already beat Minnesota as home underdogs in a late 10:30 p.m. local time kickoff, and this spot is even tougher for Duke coming from the east coast.

bet365 is the only top sports betting site offering better than +124 odds to back California, so I am squeezing extra value there with my $10 wager that would net $12.50 in profits in the event of an upset.

📊 Live Duke vs. California odds

🎯 New Mexico (+115) ❌

San Jose State is favored at home over New Mexico despite not yet owning a win over an FBS opponent and trailing in the fourth quarter of their lone win against Idaho.

The Spartans were just torched by Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson, whose 444 passing yards were the third-most in a game in school history (his previous career-high was 294). That game was a big reason San Jose State ranks dead-last in PFF’s coverage grade.

San Jose State has issues on both sides of the ball, ranking 129th among FBS teams in both pass-blocking and tackles for loss. Quarterback Walker Eget has been pressured on 26% of his dropbacks, and a New Mexico team that is battle-tested against Michigan and owns a non-conference win over UCLA should not be this big of underdogs.

Several of our best sports betting sites are aligned with New Mexico’s +115 moneyline odds, which suggest a 46.51% implied probability of the Lobos pulling the upset. I am backing this upset with a $10 wager at Caesars, hoping to net $11.50 in profits.

This is a three-star play, as the Illini returned 16 starters from a team that went 5-1 ATS against ranked opponents this year.