College Football Upset Picks Week 5: 3 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet
Last week’s college football upset picks turned profitable after our +240 cash when Memphis completed the largest comeback among FBS teams this season to shock Arkansas.
A week after Clemson became the second favorite of at least 17.5 points to lose outright, this week’s college football picks fade three AP-ranked teams, two of which are in AP top-25 matchups.
My three upset picks add to our college football predictions for Week 5.
🏈 College football upset picks: Week 5
College football upset picks odds subject to change.
- Illinois vs. USC (+200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- LSU at Ole Miss (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Arizona at Iowa State (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🚨 Best college football Week 5 moneyline underdogs to bet
College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.
🎯 Illinois (+200) ⭐⭐⭐
It’s gut check time for an Illinois team that was obliterated 63-10 at Indiana a week ago. But perhaps that is more of a testament to how good Indiana is than how overrated the Fighting Illini are. After all, 14 of Curt Cignetti’s 15 wins as Indiana head coach have come by double-digits, and his only two losses are against the two teams that played for the national title last year (Ohio State and Notre Dame).
Illinois’ defensive strength is its secondary, but was without three players last week. The loss of star defensive back Xavier Scott was considered so big that the line moved two points in Indiana’s favor once he was ruled out. If he is healthy this week, he takes away half the field from USC’s vaunted passing attack.
This is a three-star play, as the Illini returned 16 starters from a team that went 5-1 ATS against ranked opponents this year.
Several best sports betting sites are aligned with the +200 moneyline odds at a 33.33% implied probability, for the Illini to pull the upset. I am backing this one-in-three chance with a $10 wager at BetMGM, in the hopes of netting $20 in profits.
Up To $1,500 First Bet
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
📊 Live USC vs. Illinois odds
🎯 LSU (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
LSU needed a get-right game after struggling mightily offensively to begin the season. The Tigers entered last week ranked 15th in the SEC in offensive points per game, 12th in Offensive Efficiency, and 16th in explosive plays (rushes of 10-plus yards or pass plays of 20 or more yards).
I still trust Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has thrown a passing touchdown in 10 consecutive games - the third-longest streak at LSU in the last 15 years.
Ole Miss was a late fumble away from losing to Arkansas at home two weeks ago; the Tigers' defense - which has allowed just 9.3 points per game - is built to slow down Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo attack, just as they did when they held Ole Miss to 23 points in regulation in last year’s upset home win.
Lane Kiffin is just 2-4 SU and ATS in his coaching career against Brian Kelly, which makes the Tigers’ 50% implied odds at the high end of the market desirable. FanDuel is the only top sports betting site that offers better than +100 odds to back LSU, so I am squeezing extra value there with my $10 wager that would net $10.20 in profits in the event of an upset.
Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets
New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
📊 Live LSU vs. Ole Miss odds
🎯 Arizona (+200) ⭐⭐⭐
Many view Iowa State as being in the driver’s seat to clinch the Big 12 regular-season title, but this looks like a flawed team ripe for the picking.
The Cyclones were outgained by 70 yards in a Week 0 win over Kansas State. They also followed up a typical defensive struggle against Iowa with a narrow one-score win at Arkansas State in a game they were favored by three touchdowns.
For all the talk of Arizona’s offense that ranks top 10 in rush explosives (13 runs of 10-plus yards between quarterback Noah Fifita and running back Ismail Mahdi), its defense is why I expect it to pull the road upset.
The Wildcats rank in the top 10 defensively in Stuff Rate, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. As long as Arizona is careful with the football against a Cyclones team that has forced six turnovers through four games, it has a great chance to upset an Iowa State team whose biggest wins over Kansas State and Iowa by six combined points don’t look as good now.
There is a sizeable difference between bet365’s +200 odds and the price of +184 (carrying a 35.21% implied probability) on the low end of the market. If the Wildcats pull the upset, my $10 wager would return $20 in profits.
Don't miss Rob Paul's Florida State vs. Virginia prediction
Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose*
*Deposit required. Mobile app only. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Referral Codes are used for marketing/tracking purposes only.
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
📊 Live Arizona vs. Iowa State odds
🔮 College football expert picks
- College football picks against the spread
- College football player props
- College football anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- College football upset picks
- College football AI predictions
- College football best bets
❓ College football upset picks FAQs
What are the best upset picks for Week 5?
My best college football upset picks include Illinois, LSU, and Arizona to win as moneyline underdogs in Week 5.
How to predict a college football upset
You can predict a college football upset by identifying matchups where an underdog’s strengths directly exploit a favorite’s weaknesses, i.e., a strong run game against a poor rush defense. Also look for situational factors like turnovers, injuries, weather, or letdown spots that can neutralize talent gaps and swing momentum.
How do college football moneyline odds work?
When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
