College Football Upset Picks Today: 3 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 4
I salvaged the day with a +110 cash in a late kickoff last week, which brings my college football upset picks to a profitable 4-5 when accounting for each win cashing at plus-money odds.
A week after three AP top-13 teams lost outright as favorites, this week’s college football picks fade another AP-ranked team to lose a conference matchup on the road.
My three upset picks all involve home underdogs and add to our college football predictions for Week 4.
🏈 Best college football upset picks today
College football upset picks odds subject to change.
- Miami (OH) (+110 via DraftKings) vs. UNLV ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Memphis (+240 via BetMGM) vs. Arkansas ⭐⭐
- Nebraska (+110 via Caesars) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐
🚨 Best college football Week 4 moneyline underdogs to bet
College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.
🎯 Miami (OH) (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a tough spot for undefeated UNLV, which had a bye week to relish a win against a Big Ten school (UCLA) for the first time in 22 years. This noon ET kickoff is sandwiched between that win over the Bruins and a conference road game at Wyoming next week.
Much of the luster of UNLV’s win over UCLA was removed after the Bruins were decimated 35-10 at home by New Mexico last week and subsequently fired their coach.
Despite starting 0-2, this is still a Redhawks team that returned 81 starts from a team that played for a MAC championship last year and should get hot after being the projected favorite in each of their next five games after this.
I expect the winning streak to start this week, especially with the curious line of them being underdogs of less than a field goal as a winless team against an undefeated squad.
Most best sports betting sites are aligned with the +110 moneyline odds at a 47.62% implied probability for the Redhawks to pull the upset. I’m headed to DraftKings for this wager, where a winning $10 wager would net $11 in profits.
📊 Live UNLV vs. Miami (OH) odds
🎯 Memphis (+240) ⭐⭐
This is our second straight pick that fades a favorite in a tough situational spot. Arkansas showed well in a six-point road loss at Ole Miss and needs to be careful about not looking ahead to a home date with a ranked Notre Dame team next week.
Memphis has the best chance (8.7%) of any Group of Five school to go 12-0, per SP+, and is also the highest-ranked G5 school per FPI.
The Tigers' offense has finished in the top 20 of the SP+ rankings seven times in the previous 10 years. But this year it is the defense that is turning most heads after a complete overhaul with only three of 22 defenders who played 100-plus snaps back from last year.
Memphis leads the American Conference in sacks and ranks second in points per game allowed (11.0) and total defense (244.3 yards per game). But I can only make this a two-star play, as SEC teams are 35-3 SU in nonconference games this year.
There is a sizeable difference between BetMGM’s +240 odds and the price of +230 (carrying a 30.30% implied probability) on the low end of the market. If the Tigers pull the upset, my $10 wager would return $24 in profits.
📊 Live Arkansas vs. Memphis odds
🎯 Nebraska (+110) ⭐⭐⭐
Michigan passed its first test without suspended head coach Sherrone Moore in a dominant 60-point win last week. But going into a road contest against a conference foe without their head coach is a much different ask.
Outside of a 75-yard touchdown run in a 24-13 road loss at Oklahoma, the Wolverines ran for just 71 yards on their 31 other carries.
While much of the hype surrounds former No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood, I expect Cornhuskers signal-caller Dylan Raiola to take that personally as the No. 3 quarterback of the class of 2024.
Raiola has established an instant connection with senior wide receiver Dane Key, who has scored in each of the first three games. Key should provide enough playmaking on the outside to soften Michigan’s aggressive defense, and I expect the Cornhuskers' home crowd to spur their team to an upset.
Nebraska’s implied probability to win as home ‘dogs is as high as 49.02% based on FanDuel’s +104 odds. But the better return is through Caesars’ +110 odds, where a winning $10 wager would net $11 in profits.
Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction.
📊 Live Michigan vs. Nebraska odds
💰 College football Week 4 underdog moneyline parlay
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
Most popular college football upset picks Week 4
Here are the most popular upset picks for Saturday, based on ticket count at BetMGM as of Saturday morning:
- Texas Tech +145
- Illinois +220
- Purdue +1400
- Auburn +200
- Michigan State +625
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❓ College football upset picks FAQs
What are the best upset picks for Week 4?
My best college football upset picks include Miami (OH), Memphis, and Nebraska to win as moneyline underdogs in Week 4.
How to predict a college football upset
You can predict a college football upset by identifying matchups where an underdog’s strengths directly exploit a favorite’s weaknesses, i.e., a strong run game against a poor rush defense. Also look for situational factors like turnovers, injuries, weather, or letdown spots that can neutralize talent gaps and swing momentum.
How do college football moneyline odds work?
When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.
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