College Football Upset Picks Week 3: 3 Best Moneyline Underdog Bets

My college football upset picks have gone 3-3 straight up thus far, but are an even more profitable 5-1 against the spread. Thus, when heeding this advice to comprise your portfolio of college football picks, keep in mind that these underdogs we back have ways to salvage something for bettors, even if they don't pull off outright upsets.

Among the underdogs I'm adding to my college football predictions for Week 3 are a Group of Five school that nearly made waves with a huge upset last week, while an ACC quarterback looks to lead his team to an upset over a school he transferred from last year. 

🏈 Best college football upset picks: Week 3

College football upset picks odds subject to change.

• Troy (+160 via bet365) vs. Memphis ⭐⭐⭐
• Duke (-105 via Caesars) at Tulane ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• California (+110 via Caesars) vs. Minnesota ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🚨 Our Week 3 upset picks

College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Troy (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

Troy put the fear of God into Clemson last week while racing out to a 16-point lead before allowing 27 unanswered points. While the Tigers did play that game without promising young running back Jay Haynes and top wide receiver Antonio Williams, the Trojans’ effort in a tough environment in Death Valley bodes well for their chances of success this year.

Troy finished the game with only 15 fewer total yards and one fewer first down than Clemson, and the result may have been much different if not for committing 10 penalties.

Memphis is on the short list of AAC title contenders after coming off an 11-win season. But its defense still cannot be trusted against better competition, like when it allowed a combined 100 points during losses to Navy and UTSA.

This line has come down from an opening number of +165 to as low as +140 at our best sports betting sites. We're still getting plenty of value through the 38.46% implied probability of bet365’s +160 odds, and a $10 wager if Troy pulls off the upset would net $16 in profit.

📊 Live Memphis vs. Troy odds

🎯 Duke (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Duke squandered a golden opportunity to earn its first win against a ranked nonconference opponent since 1971, when it lost to Illinois as 2.5-point underdogs last week. But I still hold faith in the dangerous dual-threat Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah, who's facing many of his old Tulane teammates this week. 

As we saw in the NFL with the shootout between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, sometimes the quarterback facing his former team holds the advantage in that scenario. He knows what the defensive play-calling system and tendencies will be that day.

The Illini defense that returned nine starters and added depth through the transfer portal proved to be too much for the Blue Devils. But that shouldn't be the case against a Green Wave team that made the AAC Championship Game last year despite finishing 73rd in Defensive SP+.

Duke has flipped to being a -114 favorite (carrying a 53.27% implied probability) at the high end of the market. That’s why I'm rushing to the betting windows at Caesars to take advantage of the Blue Devils’ -105 underdog odds while I can. A $10 winning wager at that price would return $9.52 in profit.

📊 Live Duke vs. Tulane odds

🎯 California (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I saw everything I needed to know to be a firm believer in California freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele right from the onset. Sagapolutele was an efficient 20-of-30 passing with three touchdowns during a 19-point road win at Oregon State

I'm not as sold on Minnesota’s offense that redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey leads. He led the team to just one touchdown through three quarters in the Week 1 win over Buffalo. And head coach P.J. Fleck continued to be stubborn with the running game, even though the team averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 44 attempts.

California started 3-0 last season before blowing a 25-point lead at home against Miami. Even though the Golden Bears went 2-5 in one-score games last year, they don't need much positive regression in that regard to pull off this upset.

The best return for this wager comes through Caesars, which is alone among our best sports betting apps while offering better than +106 odds to back a Golden Bears upset. With a 47.62% implied probability, a $10 winning wager would net $11 in profit.

📊 Live Minnesota vs. California odds

💰 Best Week 3 underdog moneyline parlay

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ College football upset picks FAQs

What are the best upset picks for Week 3?

My best college football upset picks include Troy, Duke, and California to win as moneyline underdogs in Week 3.

How do college football moneyline odds work?

When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

Where are college player props legal?

Check out our guide to college player prop betting by state to see where college football player props are legal.

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