College Football Upset Picks Week 2: 3 Best Moneyline Underdog Bets

My college football upset picks column from last week was profitable after going 2-1, with the only underdog not winning outright (Toledo) still covering the double-digit point spread. 

I am back to continue the momentum this week with my college football predictions for Week 2 as part of our college football picks. 

I avoided the temptation to back James Madison’s moneyline odds while already accounting for the Dukes’ chances in my James Madison vs. Louisville prediction, but read on to see what three other underdogs I have teed up.  

Make sure to check out our full college football predictions for Week 2, where we're breaking down every top matchup from every angle.

🏈 Best college football upset picks: Week 2

College football upset picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

• Iowa (+130 via BetMGM) at Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐
• Baylor (+120 via BetMGM) at SMU ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• San Diego State (+104 via FanDuel) at Washington State ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🚨 Our Week 2 upset picks

College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Iowa (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

Iowa enters this in-state rivalry matchup against Iowa State having lost eight consecutive games against AP-ranked opponents and 0-9 ATS in its last nine such contests. But the Hawkeyes’ recent success in this battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, having won seven of the last nine matchups, has me backing them with my first underdog play.

Iowa finished as the fifth-best defensive team according to SP+ last season and is again projected to finish in the top 10 in that metric despite returning just 47% of its production on that side of the ball from last season. That is a testament to the Hawkeyes' culture and identity. 

The Hawkeyes are looking to improve upon a 1-3 record in one-score games last year, with one of those losses (by one point) coming against a Cyclones team that finished 5-1 in such games last year. But I expect regression from Iowa State on that front and am selling high on the Cyclones after their big Week 0 win in Dublin against Kansas State.

There is a big difference between BetMGM’s +130 moneyline odds and Iowa’s +118 odds (carrying a 45.87% implied probability). If the Hawkeyes pull the upset, a $10 wager at BetMGM would net $13 in profits.

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500

📊 Live Iowa vs. Iowa State odds

🎯 Baylor (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my second consecutive upset pick of an unranked team as a road underdog against a ranked team, but it's one that piques my curiosity based on the odds.

Baylor squandered a big opportunity to earn a statement win against an SEC team in Auburn at home in Week 1. But the Bears have a lot they can build off of after that 38-24 loss, namely quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s 419 passing yards and 3-0 TD-INT ratio.

Now Baylor is only a slight underdog against an SMU team that went undefeated in ACC play in the regular season. The Mustangs had to totally revamp their pass rush with nine new defensive linemen transfers, and a lack of pressure compared to the duress they had opposing quarterbacks under last season is dangerous if Robertson gets comfortable in the pocket.  

BetMGM is the only best sports betting site offering better than +110 odds. Thus, bettors at BetMGM are getting 47.62% worth of implied probability of an upset happening at a better price, where a $10 winning wager would net $12 in profits.

📊 Live Baylor vs. SMU odds

🎯 San Diego State (+104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My most confident five-star upset backs San Diego State to beat a Washington State team that is coming off an uninspiring Week 1 victory.

In the Cougars’ 13-10 win over FCS Idaho, they ended the game with three fewer first downs, 10 fewer total yards, and averaged a paltry 0.1 yards per rush. 

Had a Vandals turnover not set Washington State up on the opponents’ 15-yard line for one of its scoring drives, or if Idaho did not have issues on special teams with a missed field goal, we might be talking about the Cougars being one of the few FBS teams that lost to an FCS squad last week.

Most of the best sports betting apps offer +100 odds and a 50% implied probability to back the Aztecs to pull the upset. But I am squeezing out some extra value through FanDuel’s +104 odds, where a $10 winning wager would return $10.40 in profits.

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

📊 Live San Diego State vs. Washington State odds

💰 Best Week 2 underdog moneyline parlay

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ College football upset picks FAQs

What are the best upset picks for Week 2?

My best college football upset picks include Iowa, Baylor, and San Diego State to win as moneyline underdogs in Week 2.

How do college football moneyline odds work?

When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

Where are college player props legal?

Check out our guide to college player prop betting by state to see where college football player props are legal.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.