College Football Upset Picks Week 1: 3 Best Moneyline Underdog Bets

We're backing Toledo to upset an SEC program for the second year in a row as part of our best upset predictions.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 27, 2025 5:06 PM EDT • 4 minute read

College Football Upset Picks Week 1: Best Bets & Upset Predictions This Week — Pictured: Toledo Rockets running back Willie Shaw III (32) could help his team spark one of our best college football upset picks in Week 1. Photo by Matt Bush / Imagn Images.

The opening slate of college football picks produced one upset when Iowa State beat Kansas State in a Big 12 matchup in Dublin. But with a slew of games taking place from Thursday to Monday all throughout Labor Day weekend, our college football upset picks for Week 1 offer plenty of upside for underdogs.

We should be in for a crazy weekend of college football if the AP No. 1 team in the country is an underdog right out of the gate. But with Texas’ moneyline odds already accounted for in my early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction, I am looking elsewhere for who fits the bill as a live ‘dog.

Be sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 1.

🏈 Best college football upset picks: Week 1

College football upset picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.

Toledo (+270 via FanDuel) at Kentucky ⭐⭐
Fresno State (+110 via BetMGM) vs. Georgia Southern ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐

🚨 Our Week 1 upset picks

College football upset picks based on the best college football odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Toledo (+270) ⭐⭐

There is certainly some SEC bias in this near double-digit point spread, even though Kentucky projects to be one of the worst teams in the conference. The Wildcats are coming off a four-win campaign and are now relying on a former SEC transfer, Zach Calzada, to jumpstart the offense after spending two seasons at Incarnate Word.

Toledo returns the most production of any MAC team (and 34th-most among FBS teams) after springing upsets of Mississippi State and Pittsburgh last season. The Rockets also own wins over Arkansas, Iowa State, and BYU in head coach Jason Candle’s tenure, while winning 11 games twice.

An experienced team that beat an SEC squad by 24 points last year should have higher than a 27.03% implied probability of pulling this upset. If the Rockets do win in Lexington, a $10 winning wager would net $27 in profits.

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📊 Live Toledo vs. Kentucky odds

🎯 Fresno State (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Fresno State has the advantage of a game under its belt, albeit a 31-7 blowout loss at Kansas, which gave it a week to work out the kinks ahead of its home opener.

The good news for Bulldogs fans is that Georgia Southern does not possess a quarterback as experienced or talented as Kansas' Jalon Daniels, who completed 90% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns last week. The Eagles’ best finish in offensive SP+ in head coach Clay Helton’s three seasons is 76th.

Most of the best sports betting sites are aligned with Fresno State’s +110 odds, which imply a 47.62% chance of an upset, and would net $11 in profits on a winning $10 wager. The Bulldogs have as high as a 49.02% implied probability through FanDuel’s +104 odds.

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📊 Live Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State odds

🎯 Miami (+115) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a heavily contrarian college football upset pick as 73% of the early point spread wagers have backed Notre Dame. Yet the line has held firm at Miami +2.5 instead of moving to +3 or higher, which suggests the best college football betting sites are comfortable rooting for the home ‘dogs.

Miami has the experience edge at quarterback with former Georgia star Carson Beck having 39 games under his belt, while newly named Fighting Irish starter CJ Carr has yet to throw a collegiate pass.

Notre Dame is 12-0 in its last 12 games as a favorite, but I expect Miami to make the Fighting Irish one dimensional by keying in on their talented running game and daring Carr to beat it through the air.

BetMGM is one of the only best sports betting apps offering +115 odds, which would turn a winning $10 bet into an $11.50 profit in the late game of Sunday’s doubleheader.

📊 Live Notre Dame vs. Miami odds

💰 Best Week 1 underdog moneyline parlay

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ College football upset picks FAQs

What are the best upset picks for Week 1?

My best college football upset picks include Toledo, Fresno State, and Miami to win as moneyline underdogs in Week 1.

How do college football moneyline odds work?

When betting on college football, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”