College Football Player Prop Picks Week 8: Best College Prop Bets Today

With several can't-miss games on Saturday, my college football player props for Week 8 are focusing on three QBs in top-25 matchups, the best receiver in the country this season, and Arch Manning as part of our college football predictions for Week 8.

Two of my favorite college football picks this week are backing Alabama QB Ty Simpson to continue building on his Heisman resume and USC wide receiver Makai Lemon to make the last scheduled USC vs. Notre Dame matchup one to remember.

🏈 College football player prop picks: Week 8

College football player props for Week 8; odds subject to change.

• Garrett Nussmeier Over 1.5 TD passes (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Arch Manning Under 223.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ty Simpson Over 2.5 passing TDs (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Makai Lemon Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bear Bachmeier Under 176.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best college player prop bets

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU: Over 1.5 TD passes (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's been a wild ride for Garrett Nussmeier this season. At one point, he was being projected as the No. 1 pick in NFL mock drafts and sat as the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. At another point, he was playing so poorly that rumors of an injury popped up. Now, water seems to have found its level.

Nussmeier looked like his old gunslinging self last week against South Carolina, with two TD passes and two interceptions. Against Vanderbilt on Saturday, LSU will need to lean on his arm against a Commodores defense that's struggled against the pass - and with the Tigers' run game being non-existent.

Vandy ranks No. 111 in EPA per pass on defense and has allowed the most TD passes in the SEC (11). Nussmeier's aggressive style should come in handy - he's fifth in the country in big-time throws (14) - and if he can throw at least two TDs for the third time in four games, a $10 bet pays a $10 profit.

⬇️ Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Under 223.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Manning's passing yards prop across our best college football betting sites is simply too high. The former five-star recruit may be coming off one of his better performances this season against Oklahoma, but he still finished well below his passing yards line of 205.5 (he threw for 166). 

While his talent flashed in a big way, especially when he was out of structure in the Red River Rivalry, the one-time Heisman favorite finished with a 0% big-time throw rate. Obviously, Kentucky's defense is a far cry from Oklahoma's (the Sooners are No. 3 in EPA per pass on defense), but that's exactly why you should take the Under on Manning's passing yards.

The Wildcats are 0-3 in SEC play, having lost by an average of 16.7 points per game to Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia - the three opposing QBs in those losses averaged 194.6 passing yards. Texas won't need to go to the air enough for Manning, who's averaging 199.6 passing yards per game against Power Four teams, to hit this Over. If the Under cashes, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

⬆️ Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama: Over 2.5 passing TDs (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

No passer in the country is playing quarterback at a higher level than Simpson right now. He's got the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds (+380), and is my pick to win the award at this point. Don't let his inconsistent Week 1 play on the road against Florida State cloud your vision; this is a potential first-round talent.

Simpson's ability pre-snap is arguably the best in the country, and it's a huge reason why he's the only QB in the country with at least 16 TD passes and fewer than two interceptions. It's not hard to see he's the son of a coach (his dad is UT Martin head coach Jason Simpson), with the former blue-chip recruit as efficient as he is aggressive - Simpson is the only P4 QB with a big-time throw rate of at least 6% and an adjusted completion rate of at least 80%.

While Tennessee poses a challenge for Alabama, it's also an opportunity for Simpson to put on a show against a Vols team that's been prone to shootouts due to poor defensive play (it ranks No. 98 in EPA per pass on defense). If Simpson can take advantage and throw at least three TDs for the fourth time in six games, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit. 

⬆️ Makai Lemon, WR, USC: Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

If the season ended today, Lemon would be the Biletnikoff Award winner without question. He's been one of the most electric playmakers in college football this season, drawing comparisons to fellow West Coast star Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks. Like JSN, Lemon seems to always be open, and like JSN, he's got a USC QB wearing No. 14 who's not afraid to put it up to him.

With Jayden Maiava looking like the next great USC/Lincoln Riley QB, he and Lemon give the Trojans a chance against a Notre Dame team that's a 9.5-point underdog. Notre Dame's pass defense has had issues at times under new defensive coordinator Chris Ash and ranks just No. 57 in EPA per pass … USC's offense is No. 1 in EPA per pass.

Lemon ranks top 10 in the country in yards per route run (4.16), YAC (332), forced missed tackles on receptions (15), and first down catches (29). He's the focal point of Riley's offense, and that shouldn't change against the Fighting Irish. If Lemon goes Over 85.5 receiving yards for the sixth time in seven games, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit. 

⬇️ Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Under 176.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Holy War between Utah and BYU is set to be a bloodbath between two teams that love to run the ball and play hard-nosed defense. So as much as I love Bear Bachmeier, and who wouldn't love a run-first QB that wears No. 47 and is named after a ferocious animal, there's just no way his passing yards prop should be this high.

Bachmeier, a true freshman, is averaging 203.3 passing yards per game, but 597 of his 1,220 passing yards came against East Carolina and West Virginia - a Group of Five team and a Mountaineers defense ranked No. 78 by SP+. In his other four games, Bachmeier is averaging 155.7 passing yards per game - he also has a higher turnover-worthy play rate this season (3.4%) than big-time throw rate (3.2%).

Meanwhile, Utah's defense is among the best in the country. It's No. 6 in SP+ and is allowing the 11th-fewest passing yards per game in college football (153.7). If the Utes can hold Bachmeier to Under 176.5 passing yards for the fourth time this season, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

📈 College football betting insights

College football betting insights via BetMGM.

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