College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 9 ATS Predictions

Following two massive slates in a row, this week's schedule may not look quite as strong on paper, but there's still plenty of worthwhile games. My college football picks against the spread focus on the 21 biggest matchups as part of our college football predictions for Week 9.

This week's college football picks ATS are backing Indiana to end UCLA's fairytale, South Florida to take advantage of a Memphis team down its star, Missouri to keep things close against Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt, and a bonus FCS pick with No. 1 North Dakota State playing No. 2 South Dakota State.

💰 My best NCAAF Week 9 ATS picks

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🔴 Indiana (-24.5) vs. UCLA ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The story of UCLA's turnaround under interim head coach Tim Skipper - who's getting far less publicity than play caller Jerry Neuheisel for some reason - has been a fun one. The Bruins have won three straight games under Skipper after starting the season 0-4 under DeShaun Foster. However, things are about to change in Bloomington.

The Bruins' three-game win streak has come against three teams (Penn State, Michigan State, Maryland) that are a combined 10-11, including 9-12 ATS. Indiana is 7-0 with a 4-2 ATS record since Week 2. Led by Heisman Trophy odds favorite Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers are No. 6 in EPA per pass and shouldn't have trouble moving the ball against a UCLA defense ranked No. 80 in EPA per pass and No. 123 in EPA per rush.

While UCLA's offense has been the catalyst for its winning streak, Nico Iamaleava hasn't seen a defense as impressive as Indiana's, which ranks No. 4 in SP+. So Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers should be able to put an end to this Hollywood story and cover the spread in the Big Noon Kickoff game.

If Indiana covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit at FanDuel.

🐂 South Florida (-3.5) vs. Memphis ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This was supposed to be one of the most important Group of Five games of the college football season, if not the most important. South Florida has the best G5 player in the country, Byrum Brown, and Memphis was the best G5 team in the country this time last week.

Instead, the Tigers' ATS streak was snapped by a UAB team that completely changed the vibes by firing Trent Dilfer and putting Alex Mortensen in charge.

Worse than losing 31-24 to the Blazers as a 21.5-point favorite was the fact that star QB Brendon Lewis exited the game with an injury and was later seen on crutches. With Lewis unlikely to play, and Brown looking like a fringe Heisman candidate - he has 22 total TDs, ranks top 30 nationally in big-time throws (12), and is fifth among QBs in rushing yards after contact (329) - South Florida should pull away in this American Conference showdown.

Although Brown and Alex Golesh get a lot of credit for the Bulls' explosive offense, USF's defense is one of the best in the G5, too, sitting top 30 in both EPA per rush and pass. If linebackers Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler can slow the Tigers' run game, USF can cover for the seventh time in eight games and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit at Caesars.

🐯 Missouri (+3) vs. Vanderbilt ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This game could be crucial to the College Football Playoff selection committee. With the way both Missouri and Vanderbilt have played this year, the winner of this game seems destined for a spot in the CFP, which is why College GameDay is in Nashville on Saturday. The big storyline entering this game will obviously be Clark Lea's Commodores with Pavia increasingly looking like an interesting Heisman bet (+1300), but don't count the Tigers out.

Missouri just managed to come back from down 17-10 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in the fourth quarter to beat Auburn 23-17 in double OT in Week 8. The game perfectly showcased why Eliah Drinkwitz's team can compete with the blue bloods of the SEC with the Tigers boasting terrifying trench play on both sides, led by Zion Young and Cayden Green. It's helped Missouri go 4-2-1 ATS, which includes losing by three to an Alabama team that beat Vandy by 16.

With one of the best O-lines in the country protecting Beau Pribula and blocking for Ahmad Hardy, the Tigers are ranked No. 17 by SP+, posing a major challenge for a Vanderbilt defense that's ranked No. 37 by SP+. And the Tigers defense matches up well against Pavia, thanks to a ferocious front seven allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game in the country (243.0).

If Missouri can keep this game close, a $10 bet on the Tigers to cover the 3-point spread pays a $9.09 profit at BetMGM.

🦬 Bonus FCS pick: North Dakota State (-4.5) vs. South Dakota State  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

College GameDay should be in Brookings, S.D., this weekend as the No. 1 and No. 2 team in the FCS battle for the Dakota Marker. Unlike ESPN, I won't ignore one of the best games you can watch this weekend with the North Dakota State-South Dakota State rivalry never disappointing. These two programs have accounted for 12 of the last 14 FCS championship titles.

Last year, NDSU twice upset SDSU on its way to winning a national title under first year head coach Tim Polasek, and Polasek should keep his undefeated streak against the Jackrabbits alive on Saturday. New South Dakota State head coach Dan Jackson has gotten off to a strong start, but his team hasn't seen an offense like NDSU's, which has the Bison ranked top 40 by SP+ despite being an FCS program (NDSU is No. 35 and SDSU is No. 69).

What makes the Bison so terrifying this season is the three-headed monster of QB Cole Payton, running back Barika Kpeenu, and wide receiver Bryce Lance, Trey's brother. Those three have helped North Dakota State beat every opponent on its schedule by at least 17 points so far, which includes beating its three ranked opponents thus far by an average of 27.6 points per game.

If NDSU can beat SDSU by at least five, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at DraftKings.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 9 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.