College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 6 ATS Predictions

Coming off a wild slate last weekend, Week 6 might not look as strong on paper, but my college football picks against the spread this week highlight the 20 most intriguing matchups on the schedule as part of our college football predictions for Week 6.

This week's ATS college football picks are backing Arch Manning to lead Texas to a statement road win in the SEC, Kansas to bounce back behind a strong showing from one of the country's most underrated QBs, and Louisville to play spoiler to Virginia after its upset of Florida State.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 6 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best NCAAF Week 6 ATS picks

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐂 Texas (-6.5) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Although Manning hasn't lived up to his billing as the preseason Heisman Trophy odds favorite, he's poised to help lead the Longhorns to a decisive road victory over a Florida program that's had far more disappointing QB play. Sophomore DJ Lagway was supposed to reinvigorate the Gators; instead, he's played so poorly that rumors have swirled that he's injured ... as head coach Billy Napier's seat continues to heat up.

Lagway is 92nd in the country in QBR (46.9) and has the second-most turnover-worthy plays among SEC QBs this season (7). In two games against Power Four opponents, the Gators are averaging just 8.5 points per game, and Lagway has one touchdown pass to five interceptions. The Gators' rank just 75th in SP+ on offense, and No. 115 in EPA per pass.

Texas' defense alone could cover this spread, with it ranking No. 1 in SP+ and top 15 in both EPA per rush and pass behind the play of players like Anthony Hill Jr., Colin Simmons, and Michael Taaffe.

Meanwhile, Manning should be able to do enough on offense - he's top in the country in big-time throw rate (7.2%) - even with injuries to the Longhorns' backfield, plus Florida's best defender (Caleb Banks) is out.

If Texas covers for the second straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit at DraftKings.

🐦 Kansas (-4) vs. UCF ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lance Leipold seems to have Kansas back on track this season, despite bringing a 3-2 record to the Bounce House on Saturday. The Jayhawks lost those two games to Missouri and Cincinnati by a combined 14 points and managed 30-plus points in both those losses behind the play of star QB Jalon Daniels. Daniels can be the difference against a Scott Frost team that's dealing with injuries and inconsistent play from all three of the QBs it's deployed this season (Tayven Jackson, Cam Fancher, Jacurri Brown).

In a game that should see plenty of scoring, Kansas has the upper hand thanks to Daniels leading an offense ranked No. 15 in SP+ and No. 3 in EPA per pass. The senior is top 15 in the Power Four in big-time throws (8) and missed tackles forced among QBs (11), and has one of the best big-play receivers in the nation (Emmanuel Henderson). Daniels' dual-threat ability could be an issue for a UCF defense that's No. 110 in EPA per rush.

While Frost has UCF's offense keeping its head above water, it's still ranked outside the top 35 in both EPA per pass and rush, and Jackson has the 15th-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the P4 (4.4%). The Knights are 0-1 ATS this season as an underdog against P4 teams, and if they fail to cover again, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at bet365.

🔴 Louisville (-6.5) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Katy Perry, of College GameDay fame, once said, "Last Friday night, yeah, we danced on tabletops, and we took too many shots." However, Perry failed to specify how she and her friends felt the following week.

So while Virginia pulled off one of its biggest wins, and an all-time field storming last Friday night, this is a perfect big win hangover spot for the Hoos against a Louisville team loaded with NFL talent.

The Cardinals have flown under the radar to start the season, but they just pulled off a wild road comeback against Pittsburgh to stay undefeated. The Cardinals' second half against Pitt perfectly showcased what Jeff Brohm's team can do when everything clicks. Louisville is the second-highest ranked ACC team by SP+ (No. 24) behind only Miami, and its offense should be an issue for a Cavaliers defense that's ranked No. 65 by SP+.

In its only two games against quality opponents (FSU, NC State), Virginia has allowed an average of 36.5 points, and the Cardinals are well-equipped to take advantage with Miller Moss, Chris Bell, and Isaac Brown. Meanwhile, Louisville's defense, led by Clev Lubin, is ranked No. 3 in EPA per pass, and Virginia QB Chandler Morris is playing through a hand injury.

If the Cardinals stay undefeated ATS in conference play, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.